Now that the US midterm elections are over, don’t be surprised if Washington and Tehran make a last resort move to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal.
president of the united states Joe Biden During the campaign, I preferred to keep the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on the sidelines. The administration’s priority was how to help Iranian protesters following the deaths in custody. Masa Aminia young Iranian woman for hijab violations in September.
Diplomacy with Iran will never be easy if Republicans predictably control the House and perhaps even the Senate.
Iran has also been accused of selling armed drones to Russia for use in its war with Ukraine.
Nevertheless, the United States blames Iran for the stalemate, arguing that diplomacy is the best means of preventing Iran’s nuclear weapons.
Tehran has postponed negotiations with the JCPOA since August. It wants to ensure that companies doing business with Iran will not be penalized or sanctioned if the US backs out of the deal again, especially if Republicans win his White House in 2024. Biden’s predecessor, Donald Trump, withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018.
The incentives to return to contract are stronger than ever. Iran will lift major financial and energy sanctions and unfreeze billions of dollars of assets in return for complying with international inspections and restrictions on its nuclear program to deter the development of nuclear weapons.
For the West, there is an addition Export 1-1.5 million barrels of Iranian crude oil per day to global marketsfollowing OPEC+’s decision to cut oil production by 2 million bpd from this month and the opportunity to develop Iran’s natural gas reserves (the world’s second largest after Russia).
For signs of Iran’s intentions regarding the JCPOA, check out the US-brokered Israel-Lebanese maritime boundary agreement signed last month. If two steps were removed, the deal would essentially be an Iranian deal. Lebanese negotiators played a role, but behind the curtain was Hezbollah’s secretary general Hassan Nasrallah who called the agreement “a”big win.” And behind him is Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei who labeled the transaction America’s “Failure” And the success of Hezbollah.
The agreement resolves a long-standing border dispute (technically still at war) between Israel and Lebanon and allows exploration and development of potentially lucrative underwater energy sources. It could end up being a windfall for both countries..
Hezbollah rightly saw the deal as a victory for Lebanon on its way to becoming a failed state. The economy is declining rapidly, the government has not yet been formed, and Lebanese citizens have little to no trust in politicians and political institutions. Hezbollah backed the goodwill of the nationalists with the deal.
Israeli opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu has campaigned against the Lebanese Accords, he is unlikely to overturn it If he forms a government as expected and realizes the deal’s many strategic and commercial advantages for Israel.
Iran’s signing of US-brokered deals between Israel and Lebanon (and Hezbollah) cannot be dismissed as a one-off. Both the JCPOA and the Israel-Lebanese negotiations have been going on for years.
By giving the go-ahead to the Israel-Lebanon deal, Tehran could signal its readiness to do business in the region under the right terms and guarantees. That is, through multilateral agreements ultimately endorsed by the United Nations and underwritten by international energy and commercial companies. The same assurances of UN-approved diplomacy and potential international commercial buy-in apply to the JCPOA as well. Iran is showing its cards, all with a sense of the future: it was the US, not Iran, that left the JCPOA.
And Iran may be ready to move the conversation away from protests by accepting the nuclear deal.
If Iran does, the Biden administration will be on the spot, but it’s still a US-EU deal on the table. The Israel-Lebanon border agreement marks a milestone for the US approach to regional security and economic integration, including the next phase of the Abraham Accords. America’s deterrence in the Gulf has never been stronger. If the US and Iran begin talks, whether indirectly or through UN forums, then Iran could be put to the test over UN and regional diplomatic initiatives in Iraq, Yemen and Syria. . What has been missing so far is a nuclear deal, without which it may collapse.
