In his speech to the United Nations General Assembly on September 27, 2012, then-Prime Minister of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu pointed to the red line drawn on the bomb graphic. (Mario Tama/Getty Images)
TEL AVIV — With Benjamin Netanyahu back as prime minister and fueled by a wave of right-wing support, the idea that Israel is willing to launch a unilateral military strike against Iran’s nuclear sites is once again at the forefront of military observers — Israel as well as the question of whether is ready for response.
Just days after Netanyahu’s political rebirth, one of his closest political associates said military options were on the new government’s table.
In an interview with Channel 12 on Nov. 4, Netanyahu’s minister, Tsachi Hanegbi, said that if Israel felt that Iran was going to get nuclear weapons, Netanyahu said, “In my view, will act to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities.” “In my assessment, he has been a prime minister, like the previous prime minister who was ordered to destroy Iraq’s nuclear facilities in 1981, and like the order to destroy Syria’s nuclear facilities in 2007. We will have no choice but to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities.”
Hanegbi, a longtime former Likud MK minister who cast 46 votes for the party’s candidate in the primary elections and is not expected to be elected to the new Knesset, has previously campaigned to stop Iran from building nuclear weapons. threatened to strike Israel. But Hanegbi’s ties to Netanyahu (already considered an Iranian hawk) meant his comments were frowned upon.
A senior Israeli defense source told Breaking Defense that at the moment Israel has very limited options for such an attack, but as one source puts it, “things are being done.” and it is expected that additional budget will be allocated for this option. , under the assumption that Israel may have to act alone.
The big question about Israeli attacks on Iran is what role, if any, the US will play. When Netanyahu was last in power and Donald Trump was president in Washington, there were greater hopes that the US might back a preemptive strike on Iran. Such an option appears to have been left off the table, especially since Washington wants Iran back in the nuclear deal (notably, Netanyahu famously opposed it).
The second question is whether the Israeli-initiated military operation can actually stop Iran from achieving a military nuclear capability, and whether Israel is prepared for an almost certain retaliation by Iran that would follow. It’s whether or not there is.
Tamir Heyman is Executive Director of the Institute for National Security (INSS). During his 34 years of service with the Israel Defense Forces, Heyman held a wide range of command positions in ground forces (armor and infantry) and was appointed Director General of Intelligence in 2018. He told Breaking Defense that, in his opinion, Israel has the ability to pull off such an attack successfully.
“As time goes on, the effectiveness of such options increases. Their capabilities are being upgraded. Such military action is a very real option,” he said after which timeline He declined to comment on whether it was realistic.
But a senior defense expert, who spoke to Breaking Defense on the condition of anonymity, said an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities was a necessary result because Israel does not have a heavy bunker-buster weapon system like the GBU-43/. said it would not achieve B Massive Ordnance Air Blast (MOAB).
“Without such a weapons system, Israel’s ability to destroy Iran’s underground nuclear facilities would be very limited,” the expert said. “But now that the US has taken the military option off the table, Israel will have to deal with what it has.”
Experts added that any Israeli military action against Iran’s nuclear program would result in immediate retaliation with ballistic missiles, Iran’s only long-range system. “Israel’s multi-layered system for intercepting ballistic missiles is operational, but its upgrades are being invested too late and too little,” experts warned.
Israel’s Arrow 2 and 3 can intercept such missiles, but the sources added that this would not be enough if Iran responded with an all-out strike. “A strike on an Iranian launch site would be necessary to keep the threat at a reasonable level,” said one source.
Such an attack is complicated by the Iranians building launch silos in various parts of Iran. Launching from a silo makes it difficult for intelligence sensors, primarily satellites, to detect launch readiness. Satellite imagery obtained by the International Institute for Strategic Studies revealed that a new set of seven silos to store advanced new missiles is being built in southern Iran, according to a 2021 report.
Iran’s ballistic missile program runs parallel to its nuclear program. On Saturday, Iran tested what it called a “satellite launcher” known as the Ghaem-100. The system is a solid-fuel rocket manufactured by the aerospace organization controlled by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. This is Iran’s first his three-stage solid-fuel satellite launcher.
According to an official Iranian statement, Ghaem-100 “is capable of placing a satellite weighing 80 kg (176 lb) in orbit 500 km (just over 300 miles) above the surface of the Earth.”
An Israeli defense source told Breaking Defense that Jerusalem sees everything Iran does under its “satellite launcher” claim as supporting its military ballistic missile capabilities.
