American novelist Thomas Wolff, in his 1935 book Of Time and the River, wrote that baseball’s World Series regularly coincided with the “violent peak” of elections, and that ” “There are speeches, accusations, dire predictions, and ardent promises.”
Both events “provided the average American with the thrill of pleasant anticipation. , do not be deeply disturbed or worried about the consequences.
What a difference 90 plus years will make! According to President Joe Biden, today’s midterm elections are not between Democrats and Republicans, but between democracy itself and “extremism that threatens the very foundations of our republic.”
Trump may be ready to return to the White House as midterm elections begin in the US
Speaking in Philadelphia in early September, he was, of course, referring to Donald Trump’s band of red-capped supporters, Make America Great Again.
Last week, Biden returned to the subject in a speech in Washington. Using Rep. Nancy Pelosi’s recent attempted kidnapping and assault on her husband, Paul, the president is calling what he calls a “cycle of anger, hate, violence, and even violence” fostered by Trump. pointed out something
Thus, he declared that “democracy itself” was “voting”. And on the other side are the “dark forces and thirst for power.”
However, Biden’s story is significantly derailed by the fact that David DePape, who broke into Pelosis’ home, is a Canadian citizen who entered the United States from Mexico as a temporary visitor in 2008.
They are, so to speak, illegal immigrants. A nudity activist and “hemp jewelry maker,” Depapu is more of a Burning Man follower than an Orange Man follower.
I will never condone Trump’s actions when he incited a violent attack on the Capitol last January 6. And I still believe the 2020 presidential election was “stolen” this year. It is certainly worrisome that there are over 300 candidates seeking public office in the United States.
But there is little indication that most voters consider existential threats to democracy as a major issue. When viewed soberly, these midterm elections are actually perfectly normal.
According to President Joe Biden, the midterm elections are not between Democrats and Republicans, but between democracy itself and “extremism that threatens the very foundations of our republic.”
In fact, it would be very surprising if Republicans didn’t win the House this week. After all, the president’s party won seats in Congress only three times in the most recent midterm elections (1934, 1998, and 2002).
In past midterm elections, presidents far more popular than Biden have suffered big losses in the House. The Republican Party lost his seat in 1986, with Ronald his Reagan approval rating at 63% (Biden’s approval at 42%).
Today, Democrats also have one of the smallest House majorities in modern history. The Republican Party can be defeated with just 5 seats. They will do much better than that.
That’s because while Democrats continue to shout about threats to democracy and abortion rights, Republican messages have consistently focused on voters’ top priorities: inflation, crime and immigration.
In an October poll, almost half of voters said inflation was a “very important” issue, up from 37% in September.
Indeed, the growth rate in the third quarter of this year was 2.6%. However, inflation remains at his highest since January 1982, and since March he has exceeded 8%. The economy doesn’t feel good for most Americans. Violent crime is also nearing the levels seen as a result of the 2020 Black Lives Matter protests.
If Biden’s story is to be believed, the answer is that Biden will start getting serious about securing Trump’s re-election.
Meanwhile, illegal immigration across the southern border is rampant. In the last 12 months, he had 2.4 million “encounters” between Customs and Border Protection agents and people trying to cross the southwest border, up from her 1.7 million the year before. (There were only 459,000 in 2020 and 978,000 in 2019.)
It’s no surprise that people take these issues seriously. “It’s the economy, it’s ridiculous”—as it is most of the time—plus law and order, and safe borders.
There’s nothing out of the ordinary in the Senate elections either, with the Republican candidate gaining significant support last month. To win a majority in the Senate, Republicans would have to win at least two of them: Nevada, Georgia, and Pennsylvania. Even with some seriously flawed candidates, they seem ready to do it.
By the end of this week, America will be back in 2017 and Republicans will once again control both houses of Congress.
The big question is what the Republicans will do with this new power.
The answer is that if Biden’s story is to be believed, they will start working hard to secure Trump’s re-election.
But that doesn’t tie in with the fact that Trump was a big part of why the Republicans lost not only the White House, but the Senate in 2020.
: Supporters of former US President Donald Trump arrive at Dayton International Airport for rally
 Trump campaigned at a rally of Republican candidates in Ohio, including Republican candidate Senator JD Vance (Photo: Trump supporters at rally)
Indeed, Senate and House Republican leaders Mitch McConnell and Kevin McCarthy, respectively, would rather Donald Trump not run in 2024.
Will Trump run anyway? yes. It is almost certain that he will declare immediately after the intermediate results.
Will he be nominated? Very likely. I doubt Ron DeSantis, the popular Republican Florida governor whom Trump dismissed as “Ron DeSanctimonias” on Saturday, would risk running against him. It would be much better for Reagan to await and consolidate his status as the legal heir so that he served two terms as Governor of California from 1967 until he served in 1975.
And will Trump be re-elected? I am not against it.
Realistically, Democrats don’t have a viable candidate. Mr. Biden is clearly old as he turns 80 later this month. And his ill-fated vice president, Kamala Harris, would clearly not be elected even if only her own staff could vote.
Biden chose her as his vice-presidential nominee not as a likely successor but as an endorsement of progressives in his party.
Yes, she is indeed a “woman of color.” Unfortunately, she’s also a talentless politician – and she’s sunk without a trace.
By this time next year, Americans’ finances will be even worse than they are today, and voters will miss Trump’s economy (full employment, inflation below 2%) even more, not to mention his foreign policy.
Big Beast’s Mitch McConnell (pictured) to lead Republicans in the Senate
Meanwhile, House Republican leader Kevin McCarthy would rather Donald Trump not run in 2024, but he won’t say so publicly.
Trump argued earlier this year that Russia never dared invade Ukraine under his watch, and that China was equally unlikely to return to the White House and risk an invasion of Taiwan. At the time, it wasn’t entirely unconvincing.
“Avoid World War III — Vote Trump” is not a far-fetched slogan.
Of course, if he returned to the White House, liberals would argue that America would perish. Ironically, Democrats themselves could return to being election naysayers (as many of them were when Trump won his first victory in 2016). Massive protests are bound to happen (as in 2017 and he in 2020).
But civil war? i doubt it.
A president barred from seeking a third term by the 22nd Amendment will always be in a pretty weak position. The battle for Trump’s succession begins before his inauguration.
Indeed, Donald 2.0 begins his second term ready to take revenge. He has many scores to work out. But by 2028, there will be restraint from the Republican establishment, who don’t want to see their chosen Trump successor hurt.
Tomorrow, when the results start rolling in, Democrats would do well to reflect on their mistakes. For most Americans, the future of democracy itself was never really considered.
The truth is that Americans love democracy as much as they love baseball. They aren’t about to give up on either sport.
Niall Ferguson is a Milbank Family Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University. Bloomberg He is an opinion columnist and author of Doom: The Politics Of Catastrophe (Penguin).
