Jonathan Power
The Iranian government’s policies, as critics continually suggest, are erratic. Just three days ago (December 4), Iran’s Attorney General was reported to have said the moral police had been disbanded. Clearly, his two-month-long demonstrations, led largely by women and openly supported by the Iranian football World Cup team playing in Qatar, have forced the government to think deeply about long-term policies.
In summary, this means asking yourself whether you want to remain an outcast or continue the work of becoming a prosperous, healthy and unoppressed society.
Dealing with social grievances at home is one thing; dealing with the United States is another. This also requires a major rethink. Is the US willing to go back to the terms of the nuclear deal negotiated with President Barack Obama? Was it based on some degree of mutual trust? is assumed to be unreliable?
Of all the current enemies of America, Iran has long been consistently number one. It has been America’s Great Satan since the 1979 Islamic Revolution overthrowing the secular Shah and replacing it with the militant, sometimes militant Islamic theocracy. (But no country has beaten the ranks alongside Washington, but not so much in Europe.)
In the November 2019 issue diplomatic issue Two professors, Daniel Benjamin and Stephen Simon, write: , and finally as a challenging nuisance. They will see China become a big power rival. North Korea will appear as a sideshow. There is only one country that is portrayed as a persistent and relentless enemy, and that is Iran. ”
As in its early days, the administration has irritated the United States deeply. It has returned to enriching uranium to levels that would mean that a nuclear bomb could one day be built very quickly if desired. (An effective delivery system is another matter.) It has long supported Bashar al-Assad in Syria, provoked Israel through his proxies Hezbollah in Lebanon, and rebelled in Iraq. I have supported the Shiites. In Yemen, it provides modest support for the Houthi uprising.
One-fifth of the world’s oil exports flow through the Persian Gulf, where Iran has a long coastline. None of the oil goes to the United States, but the interruption could affect the price of oil. But contrary to Washington’s voice of panic, the Gulf Strait of Hormuz cannot be closed. It’s too big for that.
From a balance of power standpoint, Washington’s obsession with Iran is absurd. Its economic size is barely 2 percent. The United States and its allies Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates together spend about 50 times more than Iran. Although it carries missiles, it cannot yet fly far or carry a heavy payload. The (presumed) drone bombardment of Saudi oil storage facilities flew below radar but was carried out with relatively rudimentary technology.
President Barack Obama certainly accepted this inequality, and with the help of Russia and the EU, struck an agreement with Tehran to curtail Iran’s nuclear research and remove the threat of weapons development (in any case, probably didn’t plan to). — at least that’s how the CIA has seen it for a long time).
The 2015 agreement was meant to be a gateway to negotiations with the administration to limit Iran’s provocative interventions in the Middle East. Earlier in his term, Iran offered him an olive branch, which he refused. He came to push anti-nuclear talks too late in the day. Trump, out of his perverse urge to sabotage everything Obama has achieved, pulled him out of the deal before he had time to specifically set himself up.
After 40 years of alienation and persecution from the United States and its allies, it should surprise no one that Iran has tried to resist, especially where it can do damage in its backyard. Its constant hostility towards Israel is because it fears that Israel is working for the overthrow of its regime. In Iraq, without the US-led war of 2003, there would be no Iran. Saddam Hussein received US and British support in his war with Iran.
Saudi Arabia is driven by the urge to overthrow Tehran’s regime for political and religious reasons. This is why Iran is trying to bloody Saudis through the Houthis. But who gets praise for supporting Saudi tactics that have cost no women, children or hospitals? Relations between Iran and Syria are largely threatened by the Sunni majority in the Middle East. It is a marriage of convenience between two Shia nations who feel that It does not threaten the essential interests of the United States.
Iran and the United States have never been further apart. The EU is trying to become a moderate force, but it fears the effects of US sanctions. But if the US weakens Iran enough to destabilize its economy and government, it will shoot itself in the foot, unleash even more instability in the Middle East, and at least another massive refugee crisis. will be
Iran may be belligerent, but it doesn’t help to confront it all the time. Obama showed the way with the support of the EU and Russia. The sooner the United States gets back on its way, the sooner the Middle East will be much more peaceful.
Iranian women can probably walk the streets of Tehran this week without wearing a hijab. It shows that you can be flexible. Washington must seize the moment — it must propose a nuclear deal that the Iranian government cannot afford to miss. The two sides are already very close. Bridging that gap is not that difficult.
About the author: The author was a foreign policy columnist and commentator for the International Herald Tribune (now The New York Times) for 17 years. He has also written numerous columns for the New York Times, Washington He Post, Boston He Globe, and Los Angeles Times. He is the European who has appeared the most on the opinion pages of these newspapers.visit him Website: www.jonathanpowerjournalist.com.
