The expected surge in Donald Trump’s Republican support has yet to materialize, as many votes have yet to be counted.
It was difficult for the president, as his party expected to gain a majority in Congress. Joe Biden It governs, but elections are in balance.
Republicans need to get the five gains they need to win a majority in the House, but Democrats fear of a sweep has been averted.
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Pre-election polls showed a 30 to 35 seat turnover, and some commentators considered the possibility of a “wave” election in which Democrats would lose 40 or more seats. On average over the past 100 years, the president’s party has lost 28 of his seats in midterm elections, and Democrats may avoid even such an outcome.
While Republican vote share is up from the presidential election two years ago, it has fluctuated by only 2-3% since then, and party turnover in Democratic-dominated states such as New York and California has been slow. Limited.
NBC’s first seat forecast puts Republicans at 219 seats in the House, plus or minus 13 seats. This points to a typical midterm election. Mr. Biden’s dismal personal approval ratings are among the worst of any modern president, and fears that he might undermine his party seem unfounded.
The battle for the Senate, which is currently split 50/50, could go on for some time. For the Republican Party to take control, it had to win alone. New Hampshire was thought to be a potentially unbalanced Senate seat, but Democratic incumbent Maggie Hassan is expected to stay in the post.
Another tight finish is expected in Georgia, where the 2020 Senate election was finally decided. Incumbent Democrat Raphael Warnock and Republican competitor Herschel Walker are evenly matched, but neither can win his 50% of the vote.
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That would add three more Senate seats to the success or failure of the Republican Party’s attempt to control both houses of the House.
In Arizona, Republicans had hoped to oust Democratic incumbent Mark Kelly, but the current vote shows he has a sizeable lead. His two remaining Senate seats in Nevada and Pennsylvania could turn the other way, meaning they won’t affect Senate control.
Republican-controlled Pennsylvania won 9 out of 10 votes, with Democratic challenger John Fetterman holding a very narrow lead, but projected to win the seat. This raises the bar for the Republican party and means that instead of one interest he is asked for two.
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This makes Nevada particularly important to Republican ambitions. Catherine Cortez Mast became the state’s first woman elected to the Senate in 2016. She’s defending her less than 30,000-vote majority, which could lean slightly toward Republican opponent Adam Laxalt. If he succeeds, the race in Georgia means a lot.
Whatever the outcome in the Senate, the overall impression is a victory for the Republicans, far from victory. , would almost consider this performance a victory given the struggles faced by White House incumbents in connecting with voters.
