WESTERN KHERSON FRONT LINE, UKRAINE, Nov. 4 (Reuters) – Olev, the commander of the entrenched Ukrainian mechanized infantry unit in western Kherson, warned that the Russian enemy was facing winter weather, logistic jams and Siege threat.
But neither he nor his men expect the Russians to go quickly or quietly, nor do they intend to.
His comments evoke the specter of a bloody battle in the coming weeks for control of a major city on the west bank of the Dnipro that serves as the gateway to Crimea, which was annexed by Russia in 2014.
“They will keep fighting. As long as they are capable, they will defend their position,” said Olef, 26, who has worked his way up the ranks since joining the army as a teenager a decade ago. rice field. ‘It’s going to be a tough fight’
Kirill Stremsov, deputy head of the Russian-installed regime in the Kherson region, said on Thursday that he hoped the Russian army would put up a fight.
“If I leave Kherson, I will be hit hard,” he added in a comment broadcast by Russia’s RT TV.
The struggle for the sole capital city occupied by Moscow in the full-scale invasion that began on February 24 may be one of the most important of the war so far.
It would be another setback for Russian President Vladimir Putin after a string of heavy losses since mid-August.
Controlling the west bank of the Dnipro would give Ukrainian forces a springboard to capture the eastern bridgehead and advance into Crimea, according to military experts.
Crimea is the home of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, and Kyiv has made the restoration of the peninsula a vowed goal.
A Kherson counterattack would also be a political humiliation for Putin, the expert added. September 30.
“It will be a major blow politically,” said Philip Ingram, a retired British military intelligence officer. “And that would be at his (Putin’s) military toll. If the Ukrainians could gain a bridgehead east of the Dnipro, it would be even worse for the Russians.”
Ukrainians “will be able to smack the Russians defending their approach to Crimea,” said retired U.S. military commander Ben Hodges, a former commander of U.S. forces in Europe.
A U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Russia appeared to have already begun a “systematic and gradual withdrawal” from the west bank of the Dnipro.
Itching to attack
Thousands of civilians from the city and surrounding areas have evacuated east of the Dnipro River in recent weeks after Russian-appointed occupation authorities warned of the danger posed by the Ukrainian advance.
On Friday, Putin publicly backed an evacuation that Kyiv claims involves the deportation of civilians from Russian-occupied territories — a war crime — which Russia denies.
Occupation authorities have also moved administrative offices and records to the east bank, and most Russian commanders have also moved their bases, according to Western sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
US officials and Ukrainian commanders said Russia was strengthening its front lines, including deploying recently mobilized reservists, to better protect the withdrawal.
Some Ukrainian soldiers believe poorly trained Russian reservists are being sent forward “like lambs to the slaughterhouse,” according to U.S. officials, but the more experienced Soldiers are digging further into the rear defensive line.
An orderly withdrawal could prove difficult for Russia, requiring coordination to suppress Ukrainian advances, deception to conceal movements, communications discipline, and heavy artillery fire.
But Ukrainian forces could also face serious obstacles that could delay the capture of Kherson, including booby traps and a barrage of Russian artillery and rocket fire from the east bank, Hodges said.
As both sides engaged in an intermittent artillery duel on Friday, Oleh’s 100 men took advantage of the unusually mild weather to clean up their weapons, lined them with insulation, and equipped them with portable generators and wood stoves. We installed floorboards in our prepared bunker covered with dirt and logs. stove.
A force with six armored personnel carriers occupied the position in September after Ukrainian forces drove Russian troops back to the border with Mykolaiv province in Kherson.
Oleh said the Russians were running out of time as ice floes carried on the Dnipro River in January could disrupt ferry services.
He was impatient to strike the enemy’s weak points to induce panic in the reserves that could lead to rout.
“If we don’t launch an attack, they’ll just sit there,” he said. “It’s good for us because people who are mobilized panic. Panic is contagious like a disease. It spreads.”
Additional reporting by Phil Stewart and Steve Holland in Washington. Edited by Mike Collett-White and Daniel Wallis
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