Note: Targets per Route Run (TPRR) is an efficiency metric (expressed as a percentage) used to highlight the correlation between performance and opportunity. With TPRR, we can look deeper than raw target totals to find players poised for breakouts or breakdowns. To learn more about TPRR and why it’s a useful tool, check out Kyle Borgognoni’s primer and AJ Passman’s 2022 season preview.
Week 12 Recap
Here’s a look at Week 12’s top 15 Targets Per Route Run (minimum 15 routes run).
*Route and Target data via PFF.com
**Wk 12 Monday Night Football data not available at time of writing
Five Takeaways
- Off the top, Skyy Moore makes a second consecutive appearance on the weekly top TPRR totals, but this time he’s sitting at its peak. Moore seems to have finally carved himself out a role in this high-powered Chiefs offense, seeing 12 targets over the last two weeks. Prior to Week 11, Moore had 14 on the entire season. Moore’s emergence in Kansas City’s offense hasn’t turned into fantasy relevance yet, but with his continued increase in targets, it’s only a matter of time before he becomes a consistent threat to be in the top 24.
- Another surprising name near the top is Zay Jones who saw 14 targets on the week, tied for the most among WRs with D.K. Metcalf and Stefon Diggs. Jones has actually seen double-digit targets in consecutive games and sits just outside the season’s top 20 in TPRR, seeing a target on 21.2% of his routes. That’s a higher TPRR than Tee Higgins, Diontae Johnson, and teammate Christian Kirk. Jones is only rostered in 37% of leagues on Sleeper, but should be on rosters down the stretch of the season.
- The Chris Godwin we know and love seems to have fully returned to the Buccaneers’ offense. This is actually Godwin’s second-straight appearance in the weekly top-15 TPRR. Over the last two games played, Godwin has seen a target on nearly 30% of routes run. Godwin’s 21 targets over the last two games have paid off for fantasy managers for WR14 and WR4 fantasy finishes in that stretch. Of course, having a 92% catch rate on 13 targets always helps increase that number.
- Two names you don’t typically see on this list to note: Olamide Zaccheaus and Jauan Jennings. Zaccheaus turned in his second top-30 finish on the season behind five receptions for 91 yards. What’s interesting is the other time Zaccheaus had a relevant fantasy day was the other game that Atlanta didn’t have Kyle Pitts. It may be the sun rising because the rooster crowed, but Zaccheaus should be a pickup to see if this production continues. Jauan Jennings may be less of a relevant takeaway from Week 12. Jennings’ seven targets were a season-high on Sunday, but Deebo Samuel also missed time which could have been a contributing factor in the uptick of targets.
- A duo of Dallas Cowboys appear in the top 12 from Week 12. CeeDee Lamb is a frequent name in the weekly leaders, but Michael Gallup jumping into the list should be encouraging for fantasy managers for both players coming into the back stretch of the season. The question of whether or not Gallup’s return from injury would have an effect on how much production Lamb could be answered in that both can exist in this offense together.
The Season So Far
To help weed out some irrelevant data, I’ve set the bar to 40 targets on the season to be included for our purposes. The far right column shows the change in TPRR among qualified receivers through Week 12:
*Route and Target data via PFF.com
**Wk 11 Monday Night Football data not available at time of writing
Positives
- Amari Cooper continues his climb up the chart, moving up seven total spots over the last two weeks. What will be interesting to see is how He Who Must Not Be Named targets Cooper upon his return for the Browns in Week 13. If Voldemort returns as the player we remember, fantasy managers should expect Cooper’s usage to only increase with an upgrade at QB for the rest of the season.
- Garrett Wilson enters the top 20 on the season on the heels of his best fantasy day as a rookie where he finished as the WR2 in Week 12. If the Jets continue to use Mike White at QB, I’d expect to see Wilson continue to climb the charts and meet fellow rookie, Chris Olave, inside the top 10 for the season.
Negatives
- A couple of free-falling players in the season ranks are DeAndre Hopkins and Drake London who are down five and four spots respectively. Hopkins’ fall doesn’t worry me as much as London’s does. London has seen less than five targets in consecutive weeks and is becoming more of a TD-dependent option that I’d expect to fall out of the top 20 in TPRR in the coming weeks.
- A.J. Brown should be a bit of a concern for fantasy managers. The Philadelphia offense is still extremely explosive, but they’ve had to lean into the running game in recent weeks which has really limited what Brown is able to do. Oddly enough, in games where the Eagles are winning by seven or more points is where Brown has had his best games this season. It’s not time for the panic alarms, but Brown hasn’t finished inside the top 24 fantasy WRs in a given week since Week 9. Philadelphia has favorable passing matchups over the next several weeks, which should give Brown plenty of chances to bounce back.
