The question of nuclear weapons and their possible use amid the ongoing crisis in Ukraine was raised even before the start of Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine, when Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky decided that his country However, there have been previous attempts by Kyiv to raise the issue of nuclear weapons.
– In 2019, then-Head of the National Security and Defense Council (NSDC), Oleksandr Turchinov, said Ukraine had committed “nuclear disarmament as a historic mistake.”
– On February 19, 2022, Volodymyr Zelensky told the Munich Security Conference that talks would begin within the framework of the Budapest Memorandum of Understanding. He said he had instructed the foreign minister to organize such talks. He has every right to believe that if such talks are not held again, or if the security of Ukraine is not guaranteed, Kyiv will believe that the Budapest Memorandum of Understanding is not working and that the entire package of decisions taken in 1994 will be invoked. added that it would have question. “[i]
In particular, he said this on February 19th. Zelensky’s statement implied that Ukraine intended to return to its pledge to become a nuclear-free state. Then, on February 24th, Russia launched a military operation.
The operation revealed the scale of Ukraine’s militarization, the level of aggression, the training and motivation of nationalistic battalions, the extent of the presence of foreign instructors and mercenaries in the early stages of the operation. Some sections of the front line have been in trench warfare since the start of special operations. This is evidence not only of the high motives on the part of the Ukrainian military, but also of the hidden scale of their combat training. This meant that Kyiv was preparing for a showdown. Years of refusal of the Minsk Agreements amounted to nothing but a smokescreen of political farce, the militarization and “nazification” of the military, society, and the country as a whole.
Unlike the Minsk Agreement, the Budapest Memorandum was signed and remains in force. But if Kyiv treated the Minsk Accords in such a way, and not without prompting from Washington, what prevents Kyiv from treating the Budapest Accords in exactly the same way? A “dirty bomb” can be created in the discussion of the Budapest Memorandum, as was preparing for war in the background. On top of this, military activity against the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant has been going on for months, and in early September he did not stop while an IAEA delegation was visiting there.[ii]
The simultaneous shelling of the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant and the simultaneous creation of “dirty bombs” are evidence of constant efforts to conduct nuclear provocations.
Anti-Russian forces have apparently come up with two scenarios for this.
Nuclear Event Without Atomic Bomb – Organizing Explosion at Zaporizhia NPP. Accusing Russia of provocations or inability to control the situation at the power plant, and accusing Moscow of causing radiation sickness in Ukraine and Europe. of environmental disasters.
That explosion is a “dirty bomb” presented as the use of tactical nuclear weapons by Russia (below is a scenario of such a provocation).
Ukraine, Western politicians and the media are hotly debating “Moscow’s criminal intent to use tactical nuclear weapons”. In the meantime, there is a statement of Western powers’ determination to join forces to respond. President Biden’s National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan has warned that Russia would face devastating consequences if it used nuclear weapons, and warned that the United States and its allies would respond decisively.(iii)
Thus, the propaganda campaign on this planned provocation came full circle. The culprit has been designated and the punishment (response) has been decided.
At the same time, as before, we are unwilling to listen to the Russian leader, who has repeatedly stated that Moscow will resort to the use of nuclear weapons only if: State policy of the Russian Federation in the field of nuclear deterrence ”:
- arrival of reliable data on the launch of ballistic missiles striking the territory of the Russian Federation and / or its allies;
- The enemy’s use of nuclear weapons and other types of weapons of mass destruction on Russian territory.
- Effects of enemy attacks on important national or military installations of Russia. That chaos would undermine nuclear force response actions.
- Attacking Russia with conventional weapons when the very existence of the state is threatened.
Among his numerous responses to questions about the possible use of nuclear weapons by Russia, Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov said this could only happen in case of a genuine threat to the country’s existence. He also said that any outcome of the special operations in Ukraine would not be a reason for the use of nuclear weapons. “[iv]
Translated from diplomatic terms, everything is very simple. There is no need to use nuclear weapons during special military operations.
But talk about Russia’s use of nuclear weapons continues. It takes a very strong information background to convince Westerners that it was Russia that used nuclear weapons during the nuclear accident.
Meanwhile, Russia has demonstrated that it can safely deal with missiles and drones that hit any target deep within Ukrainian territory.
As for Kyiv, there are both reasons and intentions to use nuclear weapons in the form of “dirty bombs” to reverse the course of military operations and to denounce and smear Russia in the eyes of the international community.
It is interesting to compare the empirical behavior of the parties involved. NATO and Russia “exchanged” nuclear exercises. The North Atlantic Alliance conducted Exercise Steadfast Noon, and Russia responded with a Thunder exercise.[v] The contrast in direction between the two wargame exercises is very clear. Russia conducts exercises using strategic nuclear weapons. Its reason for existence is nuclear deterrence. The US hastened the deployment of her modernized B61-12 tactical nuclear bomb to her NATO bases in Europe. Tactical nuclear weapons themselves are premised on “limited use” in nearby territories. So who is preparing a nuclear provocation in the conflict in Ukraine? Rhetorical question. Recently, the provocation has taken real forms, and Russian military and intelligence officers have described the scenario very clearly.
According to the latest information, the Kyiv regime has already completed technical preparations for the “dirty bomb” provocation. Experts from the Ukrainian Yuzhmash company have built a dummy for the Iskander missile, which will be loaded with radioactive material. It was later allegedly shot down by Ukrainian air defense forces over a restricted area around the Chernobyl nuclear power plant as a Russian-launched nuclear missile. army. RIA Novosti sources have revealed that the Iskander missile dummy was created on the basis of his Tochka-U missile. He said that once the dummy was “knocked down”, Kyiv authorities would show Western and Ukrainian media snippets and electronic elements of the alleged Iskandar missile to convince the Western public of Russia’s guilt. rice field.
The Russian Defense Ministry also said there are Ukrainian nuclear companies stockpiling radioactive material that can be used to create “dirty bombs”. (vii) These are the three operating NPPs in Southern Ukraine, Khmelnitskaya and Lobnenskaya, nine facilities used to store spent nuclear fuel containing 1,500 tonnes of uranium oxide enriched to 1.5%; there is. In addition, scientists from the Kharkov Institute of Physics and Technology participated in the Soviet nuclear program, and there are various experimental facilities currently in operation, including the Uragan thermonuclear facility. To this he can add the Vostochny Mining and Processing Plant in Zhovti Vody (Dnipropetrovsk region), where uranium ore was or was mined, and the Kyiv Nuclear Institute.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu met with Turkish, French, British and American defense ministers. All of these countries are nuclear weapons states, with the exception of Turkey. Shoigu informed his colleagues that Ukrainian authorities were ready to detonate a “dirty bomb”. But then, on behalf of Washington, London and Paris, the US State Department formally dismissed this information as questionable and did not even attempt to investigate the allegations. spend hours evaluating troubling information about its merits, agreeing to deny en masse (at all levels, right up to the top!), and even agreeing on how to do it. said there wasn’t. public. “[viii]
However, according to Kosachev, there is one positive side to the news. He hoped that Russia’s swift and aggressive action would deter the “dirty bomb” provocation that Kyiv was preparing. He added that this again meant that people would be saved and that Russia would continue to work actively. The chief has already visited the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant. Now, after information about the “dirty bomb”, an IAEA mission is preparing to visit Kyiv and Johuti his Vody. [ix]
It is also worth mentioning that US President Joe Biden, in his remarks, referred to the Cuban Missile Crisis. He said that if the situation continued to develop as it is now, the world would face the threat of the use of nuclear weapons for the first time since the Cuban missile crisis. [x] It is an important precedent given that Russia and the United States already have the experience of overcoming the most difficult crises that threaten the world with nuclear catastrophe. Today, the mere mention of the Cuban missile crisis may be enough to recognize a common red line among key players in international politics. Such recognition is the first step to negotiation, whatever the formalities and secrecy.
However, the impact of events directly or indirectly related to the Ukrainian crisis is still very strong and develops according to the following Western logic. It is a convenient target for sanctions and special operations in Israel and the Middle East, and a very important component of the oil market. North Korea Shouldn’t Have Atomic Bombs – Eternal Sanctions Again. Can Ukraine have nuclear ambitions that could lead to provocation? Judging by Western logic, there could be options here. Ukraine is, after all, an instrument of existential conflict with Russia.
Also, after President Vladimir Putin said at the plenary session of the Valdai International Debate Club on October 27 that the Ukrainian authorities were working very hard to cover up traces of preparations for a “dirty bomb”. Judging, the information that Defense Minister Shoigu shared with his foreign colleagues had an impact.[xi]
international affairs
The views of the author are his own and may differ from those of the editorial board.
[i] https://www.rbc.ru/politics/19/02/2022/621108ac9a7947f316c3b93e
[ii] https://interaffairs.ru/news/show/36883
[iii] https://www.rbc.ru/politics/25/09/2022/63305f799a794788f474154b
[iv] https://www.rbc.ru/politics/17/09/2022/63257d019a7947a780a62235?from=materials_on_subject
[v] https://vz.ru/society/2022/10/26/1183970.html
[vi] https://ria.ru/20221026/bomba-1827022211.html
[vii] https://t.me/vzglyad_ru/65619
[viii] https://vz.ru/politics/2022/10/24/1183537.html
[ix] https://ria.ru/20221025/mgate-1826663414.html
[x] https://www.rbc.ru/politics/07/10/2022/633f7bc09a79471af8963e30
[xi] https://vz.ru/news/2022/10/27/1184157.html
