“To make America great and glorious again, tonight I am announcing my candidacy for President of the United States,” he announced last month at his Mar-a-Lago Florida mansion.
psych out before the game
His best friend, Kellyanne Conway, who served as a White House adviser in the Trump administration from 2017 to 2020, has already begun pregame psych-outs and said last month, “Ron Klein is ‘Trump’s Ready to face Trump again.” But are they really there? she said.
“I think Donald Trump is more likely to be the Republican nominee for president than Joe Biden is to be the Democratic nominee. It’s a remarkable and historical type of observation,” Conway says. .
Kellyanne Conway was Donald Trump’s top aide. APs
There have been 12 one-time presidents of the United States in history. Five of them were presidents who were denied re-nominations for their own parties. Chester Arthur, Andrew Johnson, Franklin Pierce, Millard Fillmore, John Tyler.
Six of them made a conscious decision not to run again. Lyndon Johnson decided not to run in 1968 after being criticized for his handling of the Vietnam War.
The only other temporary president is Donald Trump, and at this point he has neither lost his party’s nomination nor made the conscious decision to resign.
Indeed, Mr. Trump was able to set the record of only one US president being re-elected after being ousted. It was Grover Cleveland, first elected in 1884 and denied re-election in 1888, but was victorious and reinstated in 1892.
But Trump has a record disapproval rating of 56.8%, according to poll aggregator Real Clear Politics, and he has a lot of issues to deal with.
There are legal issues and an outflow of financial support from some of his billionaire funders. His election fraud allegations and dissuading voters from voting in any other way than in person that day have also made him very unpopular within the Republican camp.
“Democrats get it right about ballot collection. Republicans need to change their mail-in ballot messaging. [Late Republican senator] John McCain was good at collecting ballots, but Trump is convincing himself to do so.” AFR Weekend.
US Vice President Kamala Harris. bloomberg
Biden, on the other hand, has challenges beyond his 51.7% disapproval rating.
High inflation and the economy projected to slip into recession in 2023 still haunt his administration. He also lacks control over issues such as immigration and energy independence and is prone to making mistakes.
But Biden is also the only person who can say he beat Trump, and that holds a lot of weight within the party.
young generation
Throwing these two battle-weary political fighters back into the ring jeopardizes the chances of both Republicans and Democrats resetting their party’s image with a young, fresh face.
On the Republican side, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is on the rise. The 44-year-old won re-election in a landslide victory this year and received a lot of campaign money that would otherwise go to Trump. According to Sportsbet’s calculations, DeSantis leads Trump in the betting market by 45 to 26 points.
On the Democratic side, Biden leads California Gov. Gavin Newsom by 58 points, 12 points. But Newsom has already denied challenging Biden, saying the 25-year-older is a strong supporter of his re-election. “I’m all-in, count me out,” Newsome says.
The 40-year-old Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg – the first gay presidential candidate in U.S. history in 2019 and a reserve delegate from a major political party – is also widely considered a prominent challenger. It is “Nobody knows,” Mr. Buttigieg said. Vox. “Nobody knows what the future will call me.”
Ron DeSantis after winning the gubernatorial vote in the midterm elections. Getty
Vice President Kamala Harris, with a 52.6% disapproval rating, is seen as more likely than Buttigieg to replace Biden in 2024, but some on the Republican side of politics think that’s a silly proposition. I believe.
timing matters
Anyone who steps into the ring for the 2024 presidential election knows one thing. Time is ticking.
History shows that candidates should join early. To make the 2020 campaign a success, Biden started bidding 563 days after her. For Trump’s historic 2016 victory, he launched 513 days behind him. This is his one day more than George W. Bush took in his successful 2000 campaign, which took him 514 days. And when Barack Obama announced he would run for his 2008 election, he did so 633 days after he did.
Some announce it late. Billionaire financial media mogul Michael Bloomberg launched his failed presidential campaign on November 24, 2019, just 366 days before the election.
The Federal Election Commission (FEC) records that more than 500 people have filed papers to run for president in 2024. Yes, 500 people.
Especially considering Trump’s 2016 victory over Hillary Clinton in the presidential election.
Some suggest Joe Manchin, a Democratic Senator from West Virginia. Mr. Manchin’s pro-mining stance and sympathetic support from Republicans could make him a candidate for president.
And there is already talk of secret ballots to select candidates.
Four Democratic lawmakers told CNN after last month’s midterm elections that at least half of their peers would choose someone other than Biden as their 2024 candidate if they could vote in a secret ballot.
Dean Phillips, the first Democrat to ask Biden not to run, said in a radio interview, “No, I don’t think Biden should run again.” “I think a compelling, well-prepared, and dynamic new generation of Democrats stepping up will serve this country well.”
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at the COP26 climate negotiations. Getty
Other Democrats, such as Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, have also not committed to endorse Biden in the 2024 presidential election.
But before the midterm elections, opposition to Mr. Biden’s candidacy began again, which subsequently boosted public and party support.
Whatever Biden officially decides, uncertainty over the race and who will be in it will take media coverage to a new level over the next two years and is what America wants to sell most. Democracy is more likely to be preserved.
candidates
Among the dozens of candidates to take on Joe Biden and Donald Trump are men and women who are nearly half their age and eager to set a new agenda.
On the Republican side we have DeSantis. However, he will face a deadly battle with a wounded tiger, Tramp. Biden has already said, “It will be fun to see them fight each other.”
Outside of DeSantis is Glenn Youngkin, former chief executive of private equity firm Carlyle Group, who defeated former Gov. Terry McAuliffe, a Blue House Democrat, in Virginia last year.
Other Republican candidates include former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley, former Vice President Mike Pence, who recently said Trump has many other options, former Secretary of State and friend of Australia Mike Pompeo, May include Larry the Governor of Maryland. Hogan.
On the Democratic side is Governor Newsom, 55, who is considered California’s most leftist governor.
Aside from Buttigieg and Harris, other Democratic candidates include Oprah Winfrey’s friend Stacey Abrams, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, Hillary Clinton, Michelle Obama, and Elizabeth Warren as outsiders. may be included.
