Iran’s crackdown on dissent and aid to Russia in Ukraine deepens Iran’s isolation

For the first time since taking Americans hostage after the 1979 revolution, Iran has alienated international public opinion in a way that could increase its economic and diplomatic isolation.

Growing protests against Iran’s brutal enforcement of the compulsory hijab led to the violent death of Martha Amini, killing at least 200 more in the crackdown on popular anti-government protests, but now Iran’s Russia It is amplified by its commitment to and material support for the Ukrainian invasion.

Regardless of the outcome of current protests on the Iranian domestic political scene or over the course of the Ukraine war, the consequences of Iran’s actions on issues ranging from the fate of the nuclear deal to regional policy may not be short-lived. , international public opinion appears to be an additional factor in future decisions regarding relations with Iran.

One such policy shift has already occurred. The U.S. government was adamant in supporting the revival of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) despite apparent Iranian hesitation, but the deal is not a priority at this time and the U.S. said to be focused on. Protesting in Iran. Secretary of State Tony Brinken went even further and met with Iranian civil society activists. The United States has also imposed new sanctions on Iranians linked to the crackdown and eased restrictions on Iran’s access to tools to circumvent Internet filtering by the Iranian government.

Adding to this new negative scrutiny of Iran for domestic abuse were reports that Iran supplied Russia with drones and tech experts to support its brutal war against Ukraine. Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdullahian and Iran’s High National Security Council have repeatedly denied the allegations, but the United States, Britain and France allege that they violate UN Security Council Resolution 2231. Speaking openly about offering drones, we have codified the JCPOA. The arms embargo extended by the resolution expired in October 2020, but provisions banning imports and exports of missile-related technology remain in effect until 2023.

These accusations could trigger a snapback of all UN nuclear-related sanctions against Iran, with neither Russia nor China having veto power. It is already trying to pre-empt such action by writing to , asking it to “stop misinterpreting Resolution 2231 on the pretext of the war in Ukraine.”

Meanwhile, Ukraine has threatened legal action against Iran. Ukraine’s foreign ministry said Iran was complicit in Russian terrorism, saying it “continues to carry out terrorist acts against Ukrainian civilians and critical infrastructure using Iranian-made combat drones. … Iran and its leadership, both internal and external, bear the most severe responsibility” in the framework of the international legal process to deal with Russia’s crimes against Ukraine. ”

This threat is clearly a symptom of what Iran should expect. Ukraine currently has no interest in continuing political, diplomatic, trade or industrial relations with Iran. Those ties have already fallen sharply after Iran shot down a Ukrainian airliner, killing all 176 people on board in 2020.

Another important consequence for Iran to keep in mind is that Iranian financial assets and assets around the world (particularly in Europe) may be frozen and even confiscated by Ukraine. A victory in a war with Russia would likely demand war damages from both Russia and Iran.

Of course, it is possible that Iran’s leadership will quietly ease hijab enforcement and the current crisis will pass.

But when it comes to Ukraine, the Iranian people are right to question what their country stands to gain in exchange for intervening on Russia’s side. It clearly exceeds the powers of all Iranian civilian and military officials except Despite what several Iranian parliamentarians have claimed, it is Khamenei who can involve Iran in a war that has few ties to Iran and actually appears to be against Iran’s national interests. only.

History may perhaps provide some context. Abbas Mirza, his second king of the Qajar dynasty, Fat, who was the Iranian crown of Ali Shah, died before his father in 1833. This created an inheritance problem, which was resolved by Russian intervention. According to the Turkmenchai Treaty, Russia After signing a deal with Iran years before Fat Ali Shah’s death, Moscow ensured that the inheritance would remain with Abbas Mirza’s children. Khamenei, 83, and ailing, from Vladimir Putin in exchange for drones and Iranian Ukrainian military advisers, Russia will ensure Mojtaba Khamenei will succeed his father when the time comes I wonder if I got the promise that

The author, who is familiar with the Iranian political scene, was granted anonymity in order to share his candid opinion.

References

Image: File photo: An Iranian cleric stands near a drone during a military exercise at an undisclosed location in Iran, obtained on August 24, 2022.Handout via Iranian Army/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Reuters