Iranian drones unlikely to help Russia win war in Ukraine

After months of denials, the Iranian government has admitted shipping deadly drones to Russia, but claims it took place before a full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in late February. .

Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amiravdrahian publicly confirmed the drone shipment last weekend, but US special envoy for Iran Robert Murray refuted his claims about the timing.

Murray tweeted: “Iran did not provide a limited number of drones before the war. We are sending them to help Russia use them against Ukrainian civilians.”

“If it is proven that Russia used Iranian drones in the war in Ukraine, it would not be indifferent,” said Amiravdrahian.

Iranian drones are expected to have a brutal impact on Ukraine’s civilian centers and critical energy infrastructure as Russian bombing appears intent on rendering parts of the country uninhabitable as winter sets in. has been used for Advanced weapons like guided missiles.

But with Iran’s economy in tatters, largely due to international sanctions, why supply Moscow with lethal weapons in a war already universally condemned?

The answers are wide-ranging, but center on Iran’s pursuit of closer ties with its key strategic ally, Russia. Support Moscow in its struggle against Western hegemony. Strengthening its role as a major arms exporter.

“Iran’s immediate goal is to reduce the military efforts of its key allies in Ukraine when it becomes clear that Russia’s war effort is weakening and it is having trouble resupplying more advanced cruise missiles and drones. It’s about strengthening,” the intelligence firm’s Rane told CNBC.

“But I think this speaks to broader Iranian ambitions to ensure that the war does not go so well for the Russian government as to destabilize its allies,” he added.

Iran “doesn’t have many friends, let alone a great power to provide security of any kind,” Ball said. “Russia’s security assistance to Iran is far from perfect, but it is certainly better than nothing.”

And as Iran expands its arms production and exports, Russia’s war in Ukraine will also serve as a place where Iran’s weapons can be used on a large scale to test and improve them further, he said.

Russia and Iran share a desire to disrupt Western hegemony, and Moscow in particular has criticized the United States over what it sees as its sphere of influence: the former Soviet states, many of which are now members of NATO. Target influence.

“Iran sees an alliance with Russia as a key strategic advantage in international relations,” said Hussein Ibish, a senior fellow at the Institute of Arab and Gulf States in Washington.

“Both parties are opposed to Western sanctions and are revisionist, anti-status quo forces seeking to change the regional and global order and power structures,” Ibisch said. “They are very close, and with Russia’s new isolation, they are more dependent on each other than ever before.

“Iran is also aiming to become a major arms exporter, adding another source of foreign exchange to its limited financial resources,” he said.

Iran is reportedly preparing to sell more strike drones and home-grown ballistic missiles to Russia, with Iran’s top commander saying in a mid-October speech that 22 He said the country was considering purchasing the drone.

Iran’s foreign minister has dismissed reports of a possible missile shipment as “totally false”. In Iran, however, the powerful Revolutionary Guard, an elite military organization that corresponds only to the Supreme Leader, often makes decisions on weapons and foreign conflicts independently of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Iran’s arms support to Russia could trigger even more Western sanctions – in fact, it already has.

The US and EU have imposed sanctions on several Iranian individuals and entities over the sale of drones to Russia, and Kyiv downgraded its diplomatic ties with Tehran.

And “if the weapon turns out to be defective or ineffective, it can backfire,” said Ibish, although there is so far no major evidence for this.

Rane’s Bohl added that Iran’s drone shipment could also hit Russia by giving Western countries an incentive to send more advanced air defense systems to Ukraine.

“Such a system would be a huge headache for Russia and could teach Western forces how to counter them while Iranian drones and missiles would appear ineffective,” he said. rice field.

Its apparent support for Russia further isolates Iran from the international community. The international community has condemned Iran’s violent crackdown on women-led protests in the wake of the death of 22-year-old Masa’s girlfriend Amini in police custody.

Still, conflict analysts say the drones themselves are unlikely to turn the tide of the war for Russia.

“whole, [the drones] They can carry out precision strikes against civilian infrastructure and individual units, but they are not game-changers, as they cannot undo the territorial losses Russia has endured since the Kharkov offensive. are capable of mobilizing, and do not have it despite mobilization. ”

But if Iran sends ballistic missiles to Russia, it changes the math, said Venam Ben Talebul, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracy.

“The transfer of ballistic missiles to Russia is a historic first for the Islamic Republic, which looked abroad to purchase entire systems decades ago and now possesses the largest ballistic missile arsenal in the Middle East. will be.”

He also added training to accompany the weapon and the transfer of advisers — the Russians have reportedly visited an Iranian IRGC base for drone training, and Iranian advisers have warned Russia about the use of drones in Crimea. It is believed that he trained the military.

“Most worryingly, the challenge of Iranian arms proliferation and military advisers that Arabs and Israelis have faced for years is becoming a transferable model coming to a theater near you. “It could mean,” he added.