The death of Masa Amini, who was in custody of Iran’s moral police, sparked widespread demonstrations against the Islamic Republic of Iran. It remains unclear whether these demonstrations will lead to revolution. However, by understanding the preconditions of the revolution and analyzing how well the current movement meets them, we may be able to assess how close the Iranian people are to leading the revolution.
The current revolutionary movement in Iran is essentially a continuation of the 1979 revolution and has never experienced what historian Crane Brinton calls its fourth stage. According to Brinton, after a revolution liberals come to power first, followed by conservatives, lunatics, and finally moderates. Since the transition from stage 3 to stage 4 never happened in Iran, Iranians argue that systematic evolution will ultimately enable them to cope with their political, economic, social and cultural frustrations. I lost hope.
According to political scientist Chalmers Johnson, there are three conditions for a successful revolutionary movement. The first is the condition of inconsistency between people’s expectations and what society/environment offers them, caused by internal or external forces. For example, economic sanctions hinder a state’s ability to meet people’s expectations, and access to the internet, social media, and education can raise people’s expectations.
The second is the instability caused by the government’s inability to adjust society within a reasonable period of time. Recent mass uprisings in Iran demanding gradual change are a clear indication that people’s expectations have not been met. Rather than offer more progressive socio-economic and political change, the government continued with the same failed economic policies. This means that he is responsible for reducing per capita GDP from over $8,000 in 2012 to less than $3,000 in 2022, further restricting social conditions by fully controlling schools. adopted. Free security forces against curriculum and media and government critics.
The third is a major realignment of security forces loyalty to revolutionaries. In this regard, time is on people’s side. The longer the demonstrations last and the more diverse the protesters, the harder it is for security forces with mothers, sisters, wives and daughters to use violence against people. As reported, it will cause rifts both within government and within religious circles. This will also affect security force cohesion. The outcome of the movement could also be significantly affected by the longstanding conflict between the regular army and Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Finally, the near-unanimous global condemnation of the Islamic Republic’s treatment of its own people has influenced individuals within the security forces to aspire to one day study and live abroad. , also impacts the government’s financial capacity to maintain the loyalty of security forces. As it stands, the government is reportedly hiring hardcore prisoners to attack demonstrators.
Iranian women have long been leaders in this struggle. Even their small victories, such as being able to wear nail polish or show just a little bit of their hair from their headscarves, were seen as hopeful signs that further changes would come peacefully. With hard-line President Ebrahim Raisi taking office, hope faded. He soon issued a “hijab and chastity” edict, encouraging the moral police. All hope for progress under the current administration was dashed with Masa’s death as a result of showing a little more hair than the new government had approved.
The protests were sparked by the issue of women’s right to choose what to wear, but the aspirations behind the uprising go far beyond. fighting pressure. Mahsa Amini’s death was just the spark that ignited the fire.
The early stages of revolutionary movements are often spontaneous and unorganized. It is the movement’s ideology that unites various groups seeking to eliminate oppressive systems. In contrast to the main ideology of the 1979 revolution, “Overthrow the Shah,” the current movement’s ideology is “Women, Life, Freedom.” banner.
It is impossible to predict when a movement will lead to the collapse of the system, but it is clear that the current movement meets at least two of the three conditions for revolutionary success. It’s also important to remember that a revolution is an ongoing process, and each major challenge can create cracks and ultimately collapse the entire structure.
In contrast to 1979, it embodies what kind of government people want now: a secular, democratic government. Hopefully, a leader will appear soon to guide them through this journey, reducing human loss and bloodshed.
A petition calling on the international community to speak out against the death penalty for protesters can be found here.
Farzeen Nasri teaches Political Science and Economics at Ventura College and Global Studies at the Graduate School of Global Studies at the University of Salamanca, Spain.
