How the Nov. 8 Midterm Elections Will Affect Donald Trump’s Political Future

Even if his name isn’t in the ballots Americans will cast next week, Donald Trump is still one of the most powerful forces in the midterm elections and how much of the Republican Party he cast into his mold. It’s a vote that shows. It could even shake the former president’s decision to run again.

Trump has used the midterm elections to campaign for favorable candidates and himself. As polls suggest the Republican Party will regain control of at least one of his Houses of Congress, the former president sees the result as a personal victory as long as his chosen candidate can secure a seat. I am in a position to take it as

For voters, the Nov. 8 election means that not only will they provide a referendum on President Joe Biden’s performance, but it will also help determine Trump and how he changed American politics. .

Jai Chhabria, an Ohio Republican strategist who Trump has endorsed by lawyer and author J.D. It changed the direction of the country,” he said. in the upcoming Senate election.

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Among voters, Trump himself is on the low-priority list. But Chhabria said the issues that came to the fore reflected a lack of trust in American government agencies.

Whether it’s inflation, crime, pandemics or immigration, “it’s the same theme: these big institutions let people down,” he said. Border issues, for example, are a top concern for Midwestern voters, even though they live far from Mexico.

Even before he took office, Mr. Trump was quick to understand that the border issue was a win-win situation. “At the end of the day, this is about fairness, and it drives a lot of voters even in states like Ohio,” Chhabria said.

Pursuing these political instincts has made the former president arguably the most important figure in the Republican Party. The Republican Party is reshaping his image with the policies it pursues and the often tumultuous ways it does.

US Midterm Election Commentator

Voters across the country will head to the polls on November 8th.

determine the composition of the Senate and Senate

house of

representative

435 seats in total

for the election

we need the republican party

pick up six

seat to control

Democrats currently hold

220-212 majority, 3 vacancies

Senate

35 out of 100 seats

Run for Election –

14 Democratic Party,

21 Republicans

Republicans must

take one seat

to control

Democrats currently hold

Majority by tie-break

Vice President Vote

Kamala Harris

*Includes two independents who vote Democrat

Graphic News, Source: Cook Political Report; Multistate

US Midterm Election Commentator

Voters across the country will head to the polls on November 8th.

determine the composition of the Senate and Senate

house of

representative

435 seats in total

for the election

Republicans must

take six seats

to control

Democrats currently hold

220-212 majority, 3 vacancies

Senate

35 out of 100 seats

Run for Election –

14 Democratic Party,

21 Republicans

Republicans must

take one seat

to control

Democrats currently hold

Majority by tie-break

Vice President Vote

Kamala Harris

*Includes two independents who vote Democrat

Graphic News, Source: Cook Political Report; Multistate

US Midterm Election Commentator

Voters across the country will head to the polls on November 8th.

determine the composition of the Senate and Senate

house of

representative

435 seats in total

for the election

we need the republican party

pick up six

seat to control

Democrats currently hold

220-212 majority, 3 vacancies

Senate

35 out of 100 seats

Run for Election –

14 Democratic Party,

21 Republicans

Republicans must

take one seat

to control

Democrats currently hold

Majority by tie-break

Vice President Vote

Kamala Harris

*Includes two independents who vote Democrat

Graphic News, Source: Cook Political Report; Multistate

Next week’s election will be, in part, a referendum on that particular brand of politics, with its culture war rallying cry and willingness to deny the results of the vote. Among them are prominent Senate candidates such as Vance of Ohio, Mehmet Oz of Pennsylvania (better known as Dr. Oz on television), and former NFL running back Herschel Walker of Georgia. include. .

Polls suggest stiff competition in the Senate, and candidates who have voiced their support for Trump are being looked at as indicators of his political future.

“If he loses those races, that might be the only thing that gives him a pause. Maybe my endorsement isn’t what I thought,” Trump said. White House Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney said.

On the other hand, “if the race goes well, he may come to make an announcement sooner or later.”

According to University of Virginia scholar and leader Jennifer Lawless, Mr. Trump has already succeeded in forming a Republican candidate to run for the House of Representatives, and the House expects Congress to “be like Donald Trump after the midterm elections.” “I’ll make sure that.” Editor of the American Journal of Political Science.

Republican congressional leaders face a choice, she said. Alternatively, “they can join his two-year revenge tour in hopes of winning the 2024 presidential election well enough,” Lawless said.

“And that’s probably the route Trump prefers.”

Republicans have pledged to investigate Biden’s son, Hunter Biden, White House chief medical adviser Anthony Fauci, and the Justice Department. Some have threatened to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorcas.

History has proven that hardline Republican tactics can backfire, boosting the re-elections of Bill Clinton in 1996 and Barack Obama in 2012. Jacobson is an Honorary Scholar at the University of California, San Diego and has written extensively on US politics.

A relentless Republican takeover of the House over the next two years risks driving the party’s voters into a frenzy. Jacobson said of Trump, the more voters “remember why they didn’t rate him in 2020, the worse it gets for Trump.”

At the same time, the faith in Trump is so unshakable among his most ardent supporters that Trump will once again choose to be the presidential nominee regardless of how the country votes next week. Even if he did, it would do little to prevent him from becoming a presidential candidate again.

“If he runs, I think it’s very clear that he will be nominated,” said Anthony Scaramucci, who briefly served as the White House communications director under Trump.

Trump cares most about money and attention, he said. “Politics gave him both of those things,” he said. When it came to the next general election in 2024, “If he can win, he will run. I don’t see why he wouldn’t.”

The Trump movement has been driven by a cultural backlash against progressive forces that are still powerful in both the United States and other Western democracies. It has led voters to what Harvard scholar Pippa Norris calls an authoritarian populist. It will magnify the idea that it can’t be done, so we need a strong leader like Trump who can overcome it,” said Professor Norris. He is the director of the Electoral Integrity Project and co-author of the 2019 book. Cultural Backlash: Trump, Brexit, Authoritarian Populism.

Such an outcome, she said, would only further darken the prospects for countries whose government systems Trump is putting pressure on.

“We already know democracy is going backwards. But it’s likely to get worse,” she said.

The interim results, which show high support for Trump sympathizers, are symbolically very important, she added.