Despite not being a candidate, Donald Trump is looming large this midterm election cycle, but it won’t be clear until Election Day, or shortly after, what difference he’s making.
The former president’s approval ratings among Republicans remain high despite him facing repercussions from multiple polls and the Jan. 6 hearing, with 64% of registered Republican voters , says Trump should have considerable or significant influence over future direction. According to ABC News and Ipsos polls, the party’s
Trump supporters show up above and below the ballot in congressional and statewide elections.
Veteran Republican strategist Mark Weaver told ABC News, “Although Donald Trump isn’t on the ballot this year, Trump’s political brand is there and continues to show excellent persistence and effectiveness. I have,” he said. Weaver said Trump-backed candidates often likewise rebel against the elite and embrace his off-script demeanor.
In the final week of his campaign, Trump is holding a series of rallies to provoke Republican supporters in battleground states. He will perform in Florida, Iowa, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Also, the Trump-backed Super-His PAC spent at least $8.6 million on advertising in battleground states, not as much as other Republican groups have invested in this cycle.
Trump spokesperson Liz Harrington told ABC News that Trump’s endorsement “has had an incredible impact on the midterm elections.”
“Across the country, Republicans have benefited from President Trump’s rallies, funding and leadership,” Harrington said.
But will Trump’s influence ultimately help or hurt the Republican Party?
Trump has helped shape the Republican midterms in primaries and often voices his support at rallies. The question is whether his influence will help or hinder any chance of a Republican regaining control of Congress.
“This is the year we take back the House,” Trump said at a Texas rally in late October. “We’re going to take back the Senate. We’re going to take back America.”
As in Wyoming’s loss of Rep. Liz Cheney to Harriet Hedgeman and Kari Lake’s defeat of Karin Taylor-Robson in the gubernatorial primary in Arizona, Trump’s nominations have led to more moderate Republicans. There have been instances where incumbents were not voted out.
And his support hasn’t always been applauded by Republican leaders seeking to regain control of Congress. , there is Dr. Mehmet Oz, a Pennsylvania celebrity. Despite pushing Walker to run and wiping out serious Republican challengers, Trump didn’t set foot in Georgia in this final campaign.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has questioned the “candidate quality” of some Republicans as he moderates hopes that Republicans will regain control of the House. Although he did not name Mr. McConnell or the candidate, the former president hit back by calling Mr. McConnell a “hack politician.”
“Many of the battlefield states’ senatorial candidates have been nominated by Donald Trump,” Bill Galston, a senior fellow in governance studies at the Brookings Institution, told ABC News. “It certainly applies to Pennsylvania. It applies to Arizona. It applies to Georgia.”
These three states could ultimately decide which party will control the Senate next year, and the FiveThirtyEight poll average shows that each of these races is no more than three points apart.
Former President Donald Trump gestures to supporters during a rally in Robstown, Texas, Oct. 22, 2022.
Nick Wagner/AP
Election observers have expressed concern that, in some races, a more moderate candidate may have fared better in the general election than Trump’s more divisive choice.
In Ohio, Trump will win by eight points in 2020, with Senate candidate J.D. Vance leading by just two points, according to FiveThirtyEight poll averages, and Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan. and frequently exchanged leads.
Henry Olsen, senior fellow at the Conservative Center for Ethics and Public Policy, told ABC News, “Everyone can imagine that the Republican in general is stronger than that.” [Trump’s] The more controversial option wins and many may lose. ”
After adopting extreme stances in the primary, some Trump-backed candidates are looking to shift to more moderate stances heading into the next general election.
Republican Senate candidate Don Bolduc of New Hampshire was a staunch voter in the primary, but completely changed his stance in the general election, telling Fox News in September that he was ready for the 2020 election. said it had come to the conclusion that it was “not stolen.”
“Posthumously, Republicans will judge Trump’s influence largely by seeing how the Senate candidates behave,” Galston continued. I think a lot of people will say it’s Trump’s fault if they can’t keep up.”
Polls and historical trends generally show that Republicans will take over the House this cycle while the Senate is more fluid. According to Five Thirty Eight’s expectations, the suppression of the upper echelons is a dead heat.
Looking ahead to 2024
Trump’s actions in the midterm elections will be his first test race since leaving office, all against the backdrop of 2024.
The former president has consistently hinted at re-running for president, saying at a rally in Texas last month that he “probably has to do it all over again” to make the country “successful, safe and bright again.” ‘ said.
“If Trump-backed Republicans lose a race they could possibly win in a battleground state, that will impact the conversation in 2024,” Galston said.
However, if the candidate he supports does well, it could further increase his profile in the Republican Party.
Many other potential 2024 candidates are making their presence known in this mid-cycle.
Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin was in Arizona campaigning for Lake and other Republicans. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, widely considered to be one of Trump’s biggest competitors, has appeared at events in Kansas, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Trump says he will run for Senator Marco Rubio in Florida on Nov. 6, but won’t be making an appearance with DeSantis specifically.
An ABC News poll in September showed Republicans and Republican-leaning independents split 47% to 46% on whether Trump should be the 2024 nominee, with Trump down 20 percentage points from the 2020 nomination. rice field.
