Donald Trump’s continued presence in American politics is one reason why the Republican Party has been so weak in this year’s midterm elections. The effects of the former president’s weakening on the Republican Party were perhaps less evident than in Georgia. There, Trump’s Republican nemesis Gov. Brian Kemp won re-election, while his favorite Senate candidate, Herschel Walker, was forced to a runoff against Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock. rice field.
With the Georgia Senate run-off just two days away, these issues are clearer than ever. Trump’s unpopularity in Georgia prompted him to remain out of state on the final day of his campaign, part of a deeper reshaping of America’s political ties.
To understand Trump’s impact on Georgia, take a look at Friday’s CNN/SSRS poll for the Senate runoff. Trump’s approval rating was just 39%, while the candidate’s approval rating was his 54%.
Of course, now that Trump is no longer president, you might think that these numbers don’t matter.A CNN survey found that President Joe Biden has a 41% favorable rating and a 52% positive rating in Georgia. It has negative reviews and is not very popular.
But further analysis of the polls shows that Trump’s unpopularity may be preventing voters from voting for Walker. Among voters who hold an unfavorable opinion of Trump but not Biden, the former football star has an 87-point lead over Warnock.
If such margins were maintained among all voters who viewed Mr. Biden unfavorably, it would have been more than enough for Mr. Walker to win. The problem for Walker is that voters who have a favorable opinion of Trump, not Biden, made up only 37% of voters in our poll.
A sizable 21% of Georgia voter candidates held a favorable view of neither Biden nor Trump. This group of voters still preferred Walker over Warnock, but with only 14 points.
In other words, there was more than a 70-point difference in Walker’s margin among those who didn’t like Biden, based on whether they liked Trump.
Warnock’s ability to keep Walker’s margins low among those who don’t like either Biden or Trump, mathematically works for him.
To understand how rare it is for a former president to have such a powerful influence, consider the last time there was an unpopular Republican president who recently left the White House. In his September 2010 CNN pre-election poll, the Republican House candidate had about 50 points ahead of voters who disliked George W. Bush (former president) and Barack Obama (incumbent).
If Walker had beaten those who don’t like Biden or Trump by 50 points, he would have taken the lead in the Georgia polls.
But Trump’s influence over Georgia voters isn’t just about his favorable or unfavorable ratings. Find out which coalition Walker and Warnock rely on to win.
Unsurprisingly, Walker leads among white voters and Warnock leads among black voters. This is to be expected in the most tightly divided states.
But it’s the extent of the educational gap among Georgia’s white voters that troubled political analysts just eight years ago. Among non-college-educated white voters, Walker was in the lead, 83% to 17%. His lead has shrunk from 51% where he is among college-educated white voters to 47% where he is.
Compare that to what we saw in the 2014 Senate exit polls in Georgia (i.e., the last Senate election in Peach State before Trump first announced he would be president). please. Republican David Perdue won 80% of non-college-educated white voters and 70% of college-educated white voters.
In fact, arguably the biggest reason the Democrats are currently competitive in the Georgia election is how many more college-educated white voters they have. (i.e. relying on non-college white voters at the expense of college-educated white voters) make up the bulk of it.
However, unlike most states, Georgia didn’t have much ground for Republicans to gain among white voters without a college education. They were already firmly Republicans. But there was a lot of ground the Republicans could lose among white voters with college degrees.
With a significant portion of the state’s white population having a college degree, this made Georgia a great place for Democrats to profit. His 45% of white exodus voters have a college degree, according to a CNN poll.
Combining Warnock’s support from these white, college-educated voters with the democratic black vote (which accounted for nearly 30% of voters in a CNN poll) leaves him with just a few votes as the campaign ends. advantage is given.
Warnock’s win in the runoff could be due to many things, including Walker’s own popularity issues.
Still, I think the argument can be made that Warnock’s chances of victory probably began when Trump decided to run for president seven and a half years ago.