Tuesday night may have been the beginning of the end for Joe Biden. Forecasters said the US midterm elections would bring a red wave, or even a “tsunami”. Whatever the final tally, which could take days to verify, Biden has avoided the shelling that hit both his two Democratic predecessors, Barack Obama and Bill Clinton. In America, it is considered a victory.
What’s good for Biden is bad for Donald Trump. All other measures, including Mr. Biden’s low approval ratings and voter fears of soaring inflation and rising crime, Republicans should have swept both houses of Congress and even more governors. . Prior to Tuesday, the incumbent president’s party fell out of favor in 36 of his 39 midterm elections held since the American Civil War.
Biden’s Democrats will still lose control. But his ability to stave off party defeats has made Biden’s midterm accomplishments rank among the top American presidents. Thanks. As we have seen, the anger of American voters is not necessarily reckless.
For Biden, Trump is a gift that keeps on giving. Senior Republicans manage to persuade the former president to delay the launch of the 2024 campaign until after the midterms in well-founded fears that he will steal headlines and undermine their prospects. He nevertheless took part in a battle-state campaign, particularly in Pennsylvania, without success. Shortly before the polls closed on Tuesday, Trump said: [Republicans] Win, I should get all the credits. If they lose, I shouldn’t be the one to blame. ”
In reality, the more extreme candidates Trump endorsed performed worse than the average Republican. These include Doug Mastriano, his favorite to reject the 2020 election for Pennsylvania governor. Dr. Mehmet Oz, a famous TV doctor who lost to John Fetterman in the Pennsylvania Senate election. Daniel Cox, who lost the gubernatorial race of Maryland, lost to Wes Moore, who would become his third black governor in the United States. Don Bolduc, who was running for an incumbent Senator from New Hampshire. Most of Trump’s backed candidates who won, including Ohio Senator J.D. He kept his distance from more extreme stances.
Most ominously for Trump, however, was the re-election of Ron DeSantis as governor of his home state of Florida. His DeSantis, nicknamed “DeSanctimonious” by Trump, is the most likely contender for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination. Although he hasn’t been tested outside of Florida, DeSantis has become an advocate for conservative “anti-awakening” politics through his attacks on liberal teachers’ unions and his disdain for federal Covid regulations.
Perhaps the strongest indicator of DeSantis’ conservative power is the trademark threat Trump talks about him. [DeSantis] It wouldn’t be very flattering,” Trump said Monday. “I know him better than anyone – except maybe his wife.”
[ Martin Wall’s report: Democrats prevent a Republican wave ]
Biden can expect some collateral benefits from the political fratricide that seems likely to unleash between the originator of the Maga movement and its increasingly impatient successor. Now that he has become Trump’s number one enemy, it will be difficult for DeSantis to resist the president’s temptations. Trump is poised to start the 2024 election campaign next week.
Biden, meanwhile, continues to defy low expectations. In the weeks leading up to Tuesday’s election, the consensus was that he was fading as president and fading as a campaigner. And it’s arguably much better than Obama’s, so the former is hard to prove. Biden’s Husting performance looked fumbling. But that was the case for most of his career. The American pundit class often overestimates the character of the booming speech.It also overestimates Trump’s popularity. Until Tuesday, 2024 seemed likely to be replayed between Trump and Biden. – Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2022