Dow falls more than 400 points Tuesday as selling intensifies, bringing two-day losses to nearly 1,000 points

American consumers are still doing well and supporting the U.S. economy, but that may change next year, according to JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon.

Consumers have $1.5 trillion in excess savings from pandemic stimulus programs and are spending 10% more than in 2021, he said Tuesday on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”

“Inflation is eroding everything I just said, and that trillion and a half dollars will run out sometime mid-year next year,” Dimon said. “When you’re looking out forward, those things may very well derail the economy and cause a mild or hard recession that people worry about.”

Dimon also opined on cryptocurrencies, the necessity of fossil fuels and other topics during the wide-ranging interview.

— Hugh Son

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Tuesday morning that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has highlighted the continued importance of oil and gas to the global economy even as countries try to incentivize a shift to renewable energy.

“If the lesson was learned from Ukraine, we need cheap, reliable, safe, secure energy, of which 80% comes from oil and gas. And that number’s going to be very high for 10 or 20 years,” Dimon said.

The banking leader said that the focus should instead be on an “all of the above” strategy that continues to develop alternative energy sources without abandoning oil and gas. Cutting off oil and gas sharply could actually raise carbon emissions if countries turn to coal for their energy needs, Dimon said.

— Jesse Pound

Many stocks had large moves during Tuesday’s trading session.

Textron – Shares of Textron jumped 6% after the company won a U.S. Army contract that could be worth $70 billion to provide next-generation helicopters.

Charter Communications – Charter Communications fell 5% after analysts at Citi added a negative catalyst watch to the company heading into its analyst day.

Paramount — Shares of media company Paramount slipped 7.5% after the CEO said it projects fourth-quarter advertising revenue to be lower than the third quarter. It also weighed on other media names such as Disney, which shed about 2%.

Read more here.

— Carmen Reinicke

Next week’s consumer price index will have more impact on market movement than the Fed meeting, according to Stephanie Link, chief investment strategist at Hightower.

“A lot hinges on next week’s CPI number,” Link said on CNBC’s “Halftime Report.”

The CPI, a widely followed indicator of inflation, compares a weighted average basket of goods to track price changes over time. In October, the index rose less than expected, signaling inflation could be cooling. Data indicating a contracting economy or cooling inflation can support a market rally because it can signal to investors that the Fed has justification for slowing interest rate hikes.

Link said investors will have their eye on if the central bank goes ahead with the widely expected 50 basis point interest rate hike at next week’s meeting, which would be a change from its recent pattern of 75 basis point hikes. But she said that’s less important as investors are already expecting a smaller increase.

“That’s kind of a ho-hum,” Link said of a 50 basis point hike.

“The CPI means more to the markets overall,” she said. “If it’s a good number – meaning it’s lower than expected – I think you can see a nice rally into the end of the year.”

Link said the market could also remain “directionless” going into the end of the calendar year, but she predicted energy, materials and industrials will continue outperforming in that situation.

— Alex Harring

Shares of large banks were among the biggest losers in the major indexes as Tuesday’s selloff intensified amid heightened recession fears.

Goldman Sachs slid about 2.5% around 1:57 p.m. ET, one of the largest decliners in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Bank of America shares shed 5%, while SVB Financial Group tumbled more than 3%. The S&P 500 financials sector lost 1.3%.

Bank shares fell as bond yields dipped. At its lowest point during the day, the yield on the 10-year Treasury slid to 3.537%.

Morgan Stanley shares also dropped more than 3% on news that the bank will cut 2% of its workforce.

— Darla Mercado

Morgan Stanley is laying off about 1,600 workers, CNBC reported Tuesday, citing people familiar with the matter. The cuts equate to about 2% of the company’s workforce.

The reported layoffs build on the trend that’s gripped Wall Street in recent weeks as banks reimplement annual force reductions nixed during the pandemic.

Shares last traded down more than 3%

— Samantha Subin

Oil prices slumped Tuesday, weighed down by economic uncertainty even amid a Russian oil price cap and potential demand uptick thanks to China’s reopening.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for January delivery fell more than 4% to $73.85 in the afternoon Tuesday. Brent crude for February delivery slipped 4.34% to $79.09 per barrel.

The U.S. also said it sees oil production increasing next year, reversing its future outlook after five months of cuts. A monthly report from the Energy Information Administration said production is forecast to hit 12.34 million barrels a day in 2023, more than the daily record of 12.315 million barrels a day in 2019.

—Carmen Reinicke

Deutsche Bank upgraded shares of Estee Lauder to buy from hold, saying the higher likelihood China will ease Covid restrictions in 2023 raises confidence in the cosmetics stock.

“Although EL is likely to face challenges over the next several quarters, we see such difficulties as well telegraphed by recent guidance. Moreover, we believe recent developments in China give more credibility to category resurgence in that market/Hainan by CY2H23 (acknowledging potential parallel risks of US/ EU slowing),” according to a Monday note.

Shares were up about 2%.

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— Sarah Min

Paramount Global shares shed more than 7% after CEO Robert Bakish warned that the company’s fourth-quarter advertising revenue will come in slightly below its third-quarter numbers.

The comments from Bakish come as streaming and media companies grapple with a worsening advertising landscape that’s weighed on their businesses. Recession fears have also fueled concern about a growth and spending slowdown in the space.

Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan said Tuesday at the Goldman Sachs financials conference that consumer spending growth was slowing down and that investment banking revenue was headed for a 55% to 60% decline in the fourth quarter.

The news dragged down other media stocks. Walt Disney, Comcast and Warner Bros. Discovery dropped 2.7%, 1.6% and 3.3%, respectively.

Disclosure: Comcast is the parent company of NBCUniversal and CNBC.

— Samantha Subin, Lillian Rizzo and Sarah Whitten

All S&P 500 sectors fell Tuesday, led to the downside by the communication services sector, which tumbled 2.3%.

Shares of Match, Paramount Global and Meta Platforms shed about 6% each, dragging down the sector. Losses among Alphabet Live Nation, Walt Disney and Netflix also contributed to the tumble.

Information technology, consumer discretionary, and energy fell about 1.4% each, while utilities traded near the flatline.

Along with utilities, real estate suffered the slimmest losses, supported by slight gains from Realty Income, Regency Centers and Prologis.

— Samantha Subin

Silvergate Capital fell 6% Tuesday, even after the company’s CEO released a public letter attempting to “set the record straight” about its role and current state in the crypto ecosystem, and its relationship with FTX. The bank to crypto business has said that relationship is limited to deposits.

Pressure mounted on the stock after NBC News reported early Tuesday that Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., sent a letter to Silvergate CEO Alan Lane requesting information about the company’s dealings with FTX.

Since the sudden collapse of FTX in November, Lane has reiterated in interviews, including on CNBC, that the bank has a resilient balance sheet and ample liquidity should it need to satisfy withdrawal requests. He repeated this in Monday’s letter and wrote that the bank has conducted “extensive due diligence” on FTX and its sister company, the trading firm Alameda Research, and that it takes risk management and compliance “extremely seriously.”

— Tanaya Macheel

David Kostin sees the S&P 500 ending next year between 3,750 and 4,000, depending on whether the economy falls into a recession.

“If valuations are roughly at these levels [next year] – that’s an optimistic scenario in my opinion – and there’s not much earnings growth then you’ll have basically a flat market,” Goldman Sachs’ chief U.S. equity strategist told “Squawk on the Street Tuesday. “On the other hand, if you have a recession – it’s not the base case – if you have the earnings drop in the order of 11% next year, that would suggest the market ends in a year’s time at 3,750.”

In the near term, he sees downside risk around 3,600 for the S&P, citing the many companies that have negatively revised their 2023 earnings forecasts.

Although a recession isn’t imminent in the near term, there’s likely to be high, but falling, inflation, he said. He also recommended healthcare companies, consumer staples and telecoms as sectors that do best in that environment.

— Tanaya Macheel

Oppenheimer upgraded General Electric to outperform, saying several factors are boosting confidence in the stock next year, including strong momentum for its aviation business.

“Our Outperform rating reflects strong Aviation momentum along industry recovery path, with strong execution amidst widespread industry supply-chain challenges impacting the commercial business and internal production challenges serving military markets,” Glynn wrote in a Monday note.

Shares of General Electric were up 1.8% Tuesday.

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— Sarah Min

JPMorgan double downgraded shares of Royal Caribbean Group to underweight from overweight, saying the cruise line operator is “more vulnerable” to macro pressures than its peers because of its future capital commitments.

“We are moving to an Underweight rating on RCL,” Adam wrote the research note. “Our expectations have largely been tempered by (1) RCL’s elevated leverage (7.7x 2023E net debt-toEBITDA, vs. 6.8x for CCL and 7.0x for NCLH), and (2) the magnitude and timing of future capital commitments (new ships and RCL’s 2023-25 debt maturities).”

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— Sarah Min

Technology stocks fell Tuesday as growth concerns lingered on Wall Street.

The Nasdaq Composite shed 0.7% as big technology stocks slumped. Netflix, Nvidia and Amazon all fell more than 1% each, while Tesla shed 2.8%. Meta Platforms dove 4.7%.

Information technology and communication services stocks were the biggest laggards in the S&P 500.

— Samantha Subin

Stocks opened flat Tuesday after the major averages tumbled during the previous session.

The Dow opened 20 points lower, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite traded flat.

— Samantha Subin

Starbucks could win big in 2023, according to William Blair.

Analyst Sharon Zackfia named the coffee retailer among the firm’s top picks for the upcoming year in a note to clients Monday, saying that the stock is poised to offer strong earnings and sales upside in 2023.

One of the coffee chain’s strengths is its ability to continue growing its topline and perform solidly in most regions even despite a weakening consumer. Brand loyalty and a strong and a consistent customer base also bode well for the stock, she said.

“With the stock regaining its typical high-20s P/E multiple, we look to accelerating EPS growth with the potential of upside to drive shares,” Zackfia wrote. “We continue to like shares given ongoing healthy domestic demand, the global strength of the brand (and concurrent pricing power), and healthy balance sheet alongside recovering margins and accelerating EPS growth into 2023 and 2024.”

Another top pick of William Blair for 2023 is BJ’s Wholesale, whose warehouse model is well-situated in a murky macro environment and the ongoing consumer search for value.

“BJ’s value proposition has driven strong momentum in 2022, with healthy top-line growth led by traffic, units, and basket size,” Zackfia wrote. “We expect the company’s discounted product offering will increasingly resonate with consumers weary from inflation and macro uncertainties.”

While shares trade toward the higher end of their historical range, Zackfia views easing supply chain pressures and continued sales momentum as potential catalysts for the stock.

— Samantha Subin

BMO Capital Markets downgraded shares of SL Green Realty to market perform from an outperform rating as the real estate investment trust slashed its dividend by 12.9%.

In a note to clients Tuesday, analyst John Kim called the cut a “prudent move” as the company faces a weakening office leasing market. While earnings should recover in 2024, Kim is somewhat skeptical given the ongoing market uncertainties.

“While REITs tend to see improved performance after an announced dividend cut, SLG needs to execute on significant leasing [1.7 million square feet] and dispositions ($2B) to meet its ’23 targets, in an environment with rising uncertainty,” he wrote

Along with the downgrade, BMO trimmed its price target on SL Green Realty to $41 from $47 a share, implying a potential 8% upside for shares from Monday’s close.

Despite high risks ahead for the stock, Kim views the stock as cheap and inexpensive, expecting more earnings clarity and the obtainment of a New York City casino license to provide potential upside for the stock. SL Green is currently partnering with both Caesars Entertainment and Roc Nation for a gaming bid in Times Square.

“We are at market perform given SLG’s valuation, offset by above peer average leverage and uncertainties in the NYC leasing market; while transactions, leasing activity and return to office could improve sentiment from near all-time lows,” Kim said.

Shares slipped more than 1% before the bell. The stock’s down more than 48% this year.

— Samantha Subin

These are some of the stocks making the biggest moves before the bell:

JPMorgan Chase  – The bank stock rose 1.5% after Morgan Stanley double-upgraded it to overweight from “underweight, pointing to a variety of factors including growing market share for the company’s Consumer & Community Bank and improved operating leverage.

Signet Jewelers – The jewelry retailer’s stocks soared more than 8% after reporting a quarterly profit of 74 cents per share, well above the 31 cents a share consensus estimate. Revenue also beat consensus estimates. Signet’s same-store sales decline of 7.6% was in line with analysts’ estimates.

GitLab – GitLab shares jumped 18.7% following better-than-expected quarterly results. The maker of development operations software reported a smaller loss than analysts had anticipated and sales that exceeded consensus estimates. GitLab also issued an upbeat outlook.

— Peter Schacknow, Samantha Subin

Clients across the board sold more stocks than they bought in November, according to data released by TD Ameritrade.

The findings stem from the firm’s latest Investor Movement Index, which fell to 4.17 in November from 4.25 in October. The index measures how investors positioned, including what they purchased and sold during a four-week period each month.

“It’s not unusual to see retail investors reducing exposure to the markets toward the end of the year, which is sometimes influenced by risk moderation tax plays, a desire to take profits or other factors,” wrote Shawn Cruz, head trading strategist at TD Ameritrade.

The findings underscore a continued “risk-off approach” in November, though sentiment could shift if inflation moderates, he added.

Commonly sold names included Nvidia, Netflix, and both American Airlines and United Airlines.

While investors largely sold equities, they did find opportunities in some semiconductor and technology stocks, buying names such as Tesla, Apple, Intel, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing.

— Samantha Subin

Shares of GameStop rose more than 1% during Tuesday’s premarket following an Axios report that said the company has started laying off some workers.

The report cited a person familiar with the matter and a slew of LinkedIn posts from individuals saying they have been affected by the cuts.

— Samantha Subin

JPMorgan Chase shares rose more than 1% in the premarket after Morgan Stanley upgraded the banking giant to overweight from underweight.

″[We] double upgrade JPM to Overweight from Underweight on operating leverage inflecting positively, CCB (JPM’s Consumer & Community Bank) taking market share, relative multiple resiliency during recessions, and progress being made on higher CET1 (common equity tier 1) ratio regulatory requirements,” Morgan Stanley said.

CNBC Pro subscribers can read more here.

— Sarah Min

A fund manager has said that a “super week for a potential turning point” in the Nasdaq Composite could be on the horizon.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq has declined by 26.2% this year as the Federal Reserve increased borrowing costs in an effort to bring inflation under control.

Julian Howard, multi-asset investment director at GAM, told CNBC what catalyst to look out for and when it might be a good time for tech investors to re-enter the market.

CNBC Pro subscribers can read more here.

— Ganesh Rao

Morgan Stanley has turned bullish on China stocks for the first time in nearly two years as the country embarks on a “clear path set towards reopening.”

“We see a steep climb from here following the extreme underperformance of the last two years,” the bank said, although it cautioned the path to recovery “will be bumpy.” 

Morgan Stanley highlighted a list of names that it said will benefit from the easing in China, including two it gave around 130% upside.

CNBC Pro subscribers can read more here.

— Weizhen Tan

Beijing city announced negative Covid tests will no longer be required to enter most public areas, malls or residential areas, while bars and so-called KTV lounges, or karaoke bars.

Separately, Reuters reported on Monday that China could announce a further relaxation of Covid curbs as early as Wednesday, citing two sources with knowledge of the matter.

The report said there would be 10 new measures in addition to the 20 that were put out in November.

Several cities in China relaxed Covid testing rules in recent days.

— Evelyn Cheng, Abigail Ng

These global stocks had a winning November, outperforming the MSCI World index.

CNBC Pro screened FactSet for stocks that not only did well last month, but could still see more upside ahead.

Pro subscribers can read more here.

— Zavier Ong

The current economic cycle is unusual, according to Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab.

That’s because recessions typically lead to a peak point when it becomes clear whether a hard or soft landing is coming. She said this moment in the economy feels more like a slow burn.

“I just think this is not a typical cycle,” she said on CNBC’s “Closing Bell: Overtime.” In a typical recession, “everything sort of falls all at once, or lands softly all at once. This is happening over an extending period of time, with a rolling nature to it.”

CNBC Pro subscribers can watch her whole interview online here.

— Alex Harring

GitLab – The development software operator jumped 23% after it posted a narrower per-share loss than expected while also coming in above expectations for revenue, according to FactSet. GitLab also gave a strong outlook for the next quarter and full year.

Herbalife Nutrition – The multi-level marketing company dropped 11% after it announced a proposed offering of $250 million in convertible senior notes, which will mature in 2028.

See the full list here.

— Alex Harring

The three major future indexes traded nearly flat at the start of trading Monday night.

Futures connected to the Dow added 20 points, which is near the flatline. S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures also both traded near flat.

Futures opened off of a down day for the three major indexes when the market was open Monday.

— Alex Harring