Over the past month, Republicans have launched attacks in Democratic territory, focusing on inflation and crime — competing in traditionally blue neighborhoods such as California, Oregon, New York and Illinois — among Democrats. There is a growing sense that there is little that can be done. The point is to combat the combined forces of history and economics.
“The whole country is still going bad,” said Joel Payne, a Democratic strategist. “What you see are angry voters who keep kicking out those in charge. They did it in 2016. They did it in 2018. They did it in 2020. And they’ll probably do it again in 2022 if they keep up with how things look.”
Many Democrats, who for months personally believed that the Republicans would likely win the House, have recently expressed concern that voters could give the Republican majority. In some cases, parties appear to be giving up previously contested seats. The cuts, which strategists worry, could signal a “red wave” of sweeping Republican victories in traditionally Democratic territory. have a nature
The battle for control of the Senate is still hotly contested, with both parties pouring millions of dollars into a handful of states where the Democrats will decide whether to retain or even add a narrow majority. But the debate in the House has shifted to how to predict. The new Republican majority will be large. Democrats currently hold her 220 seats in the House and need her 218 to maintain control.
One House Democratic strategist said he would think good night if the Democrats held 200 to 205 seats. If the party ends up with him under 190 seats (losing 30 seats, Biden would need multiple constituencies to get his double-digit support), this would reflect a big red wave. Deaf, said the strategist on condition of anonymity. Discuss internal deliberations.
With President Barack Obama losing 63 seats in 2010 and President Donald Trump losing 40 seats in 2018, Biden supporters are prepared to view even a loss as a victory for the president. But Biden started the presidency with a much smaller majority than his predecessor, so even a small loss could leave Democrats with fewer seats than his 193 in 2011.
The party has continued to express confidence that elections will be held in the Senate, which is historically less dependent on the country’s political environment than House elections. Many competitive contests have tightened up in recent days as they continue to tie their opponents to the .
The White House announced Thursday that First Lady Jill Biden will travel to Arizona, where Senator Mark Kelly (Democrat) faces a tough challenge from Republican Blake Masters. I traveled to Rhode Island and New Hampshire to attend with Democratic candidates in the areas where my husband won the 2020 election.
The president has avoided campaigning in Arizona, where approval ratings are low. Kelly kept him at arm’s length while fighting off attacks from Masters that he was too close to Biden.
Biden and Obama plan to show up together in Pennsylvania on Saturday to boost Senate candidate John Fetterman, whose recovery from May’s stroke has become a central issue in the race. Republicans claimed their candidate Mehmet Oz was the favorite in that race after a debate last month in which Fetterman stumbled over his words and struggled with the question-and-answer format. and ran ads highlighting Fetterman’s debate performance.
Democrats are also pouring money into the state, spending the most in this year’s election.
Even voters who went to see Clinton and Harris hold a rally for Hochol on Thursday night were pessimistic about the party’s prospects.
Eastern Young, a senior political science and history student at Columbia University who said he would vote in Kentucky, was concerned about the lack of enthusiasm among young voters.
“Honestly, I’m not very confident,” he said. “I really hope that people like me, especially young people, will go and vote because it’s so important. But I don’t think it looks very good.”
Democrats face headwinds in many elections, especially in the House.
For example, Democrats are increasingly concerned that Republicans have a path to winning all three seats in the House of Representatives in South Texas, a longtime Democratic stronghold.
Republican leaders in Texas and Washington said Republican nominee Monica de la Cruz had an aggressive and well-funded campaign to flip the 15th congressional district in a state where the Republican Party could do this. It had long hoped that it would be able to gain a foothold in the region. But now Democrats are unnerved by the Republican momentum they’re seeing in neighboring 34th and 28th Wards, with Biden winning by nearly 16 points and his more than 7 points, respectively.
Local Democrats have spent months sending more resources to national parties and donors, especially in heavily Hispanic neighborhoods, especially in Texas, where Republican Rep. Mayra Flores won a special election in June. But with redistricting expected to see districts bluer heading into the November midterm elections, Democrats across the country were pushing for more focus on the 34th District. Much of Flores’ victory was denied.
Republicans “compete and take advantage of community frustrations and insecurities. They showed up with real candidates and real money to compete. Senator Bernie Sanders (I-Vt. ), Democratic strategist Chuck Rocha, a former senior adviser to the presidential campaign, noted that Republicans are spending heavily in the region, building on Trump’s 2020 victory. among Latinos.
“We are definitely facing headwinds,” added Rocha.
In Wisconsin, local Democratic leaders look disheartened in a once-close election campaign in the 3rd congressional district where Rep. increase. Pictured outside the Capitol during the Jan. 6, 2021 riots, his GOP candidate Derrick Van Oden faces off against Democratic state senator Brad Puff.
“We look very good,” Van Orden said in a short interview on Tuesday night. He said the main issues in his race became “gas, groceries and grandchildren,” adding, “We all worry about the country we grow up in.”
The House Majority PAC, the Democrats’ main super PAC in the House, recently canceled about $1.6 million in TV bookings in the final two weeks of the campaign, giving Republicans a clear shot at a free seat. Republicans spent about $3.8 million and Democrats about $2 million.
One of the ominous signs for the party is that accusations and internal criticism of the strategy have begun to leak to the public, even as voters continue to vote. Some party strategists complain that warning voters about the threats a Republican-controlled Congress poses to abortion rights, Social Security, health care, and democracy itself misses the point.
Clinton said she hopes Democrats can “more effectively communicate” the benefits of their achievements to the economy, even as they grapple with other issues.
“In summary, it’s really hard to tell people what’s going to happen in the future when they’re focused on the present,” she said in an interview on “CNN This Morning.”
Democrats admit that the Republican attack on crime has hurt candidates, especially in blue states. Attempted to associate it with bail policy. This is the message Republicans across the country have embraced to describe their opponents as crime-friendly.
An analysis of House Majority PAC spending found that 42% of the group’s ads referred to abortion, 48% referred to economic issues, 19% referred to extremism or January 6, and 5% to education. It mentions. Most Republican ads focus on the economy and crime.
Democrats remain hopeful that abortion is a concern even after the Supreme Court ruling was overturned. Law vs. Wade Like we did in the Kansas abortion rights referendum and this summer’s New York state special election, we can beat the polls with stunning voter turnout on Election Day. But they say the rise in polls that took place in early September is starting to fade as prices for gas and other essentials remain high and the Federal Reserve implemented a series of rate hikes to keep inflation in check. I admit that
Some party officials are starting to think there are beginning to be bright spots about the possibility of drubbing in the biennial elections for the House of Representatives. Democrats could have more opportunities to easily pick up in 2024, said Democrats, speaking candidly on condition of anonymity, as he expected losses in the good states and districts Biden won comfortably in 2020. said a Democratic strategist familiar with the Discuss the state of play.
“The path back to 2024 is clear,” the strategist said, “if we lose seats on Tuesday.”
Dylan Wells, Annie Linskey, Michael Scherer, Sabrina Rodriguez, and Azi Paybarah contributed to this report.
