Forecast models show an increased likelihood of potentially destructive ice formations in parts of the Southern Plain this week. This was aided by the bitter Arctic air that settled in the region last weekend.
Dallas – A stubborn battle between the massive Arctic air masses anchored in the northern plains and the relentless warming effects of the Gulf of Mexico will battle across the southern and south-central plains over several days this week. The threat of destructive freezing rain and other winter weather hazards.
A winter storm warning has been issued for millions of Texas residents heading south from the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex, through Waco and Austin, and west to Abilene, San Angelo, and Junction.
Parts of Arkansas and West Tennessee could experience freezing rain, including Little Rock and Memphis in their respective states. This can happen between late Tuesday and Wednesday. Ice deposits can reach 1/4 inch or more in this area, which can lead to power outages and dangerous travel.
An ice storm warning has been issued for these areas, including northern Mississippi to the south.
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Precipitation is expected to begin Monday morning, with light rain likely along Interstate 35 from Oklahoma City to Dallas. With temperatures below freezing, this was expected to fall as a freezing drizzle, according to the FOX Forecast Center.
At the same time, more precipitation was predicted for western Texas, but the forecast remained a bit uncertain. With the Arctic front stretching across the region, where the freezing air boundary is at this time of year is important. Areas well south of the front were expected to remain warm with cool rains, while freezing rains were more likely just north of the front.
Collisions have already been reported throughout the region, with a major northbound collision reported early Monday morning at Loop 820 in Arlington, Texas.
“Bridges and overpasses are considered dangerous,” said Police Chief Christopher Cook of White Settlement, Texas. Tweet“You must slow down when approaching heights.”
This rapidly changing belt of precipitation was projected to transition onto Interstate 35 by noon and eventually move out of Texas by Monday evening. Up to 10 inches of ice accretion was predicted for this first wave.
“It’s been pretty quiet this morning, thankfully,” said FOX Weather meteorologist Britta Merwin. It’s going to get more difficult as we get into the nooks and crannies of the ice storm.”
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A second, more influential wave of precipitation is expected to begin Tuesday morning, with another large patch of precipitation expected in western Texas. As colder air continues to push behind the Arctic front, the freeze line will move slightly southward, far beyond the corridor of Interstate 20.
The FOX Forecast Center says up to half an inch of ice accretion is possible along a line from Abilene in West Texas east to northern Texas and southern Oklahoma, so this region is likely to be the most impacted. The exact location of the freeze line, which is likely to sway north-south all day Tuesday, will be important in determining where the greatest impact will occur.
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The Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex is now at the end of that line, allowing ice accretion of more than a quarter inch. Computer forecast models disagree on precipitation, which leads to higher-than-usual forecast uncertainties.
“We’re talking about a likely blackout,” Merwin said. “And once the power outage is over, you’ll need to keep you and your family warm in a safe way. So this is something to watch very closely.”
Here’s what you should have in case of a power outage during a winter storm.
Freezing rain threat in Texas lingers through Wednesday

From Tuesday through Wednesday, the FOX Forecast Center expects more rain to continue across much of Texas. Precipitation will begin to taper off, but the forecast remains complicated as freezing showers are possible for several hours Tuesday night through Wednesday, making Wednesday morning’s commute slippery. would be

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During the day on Wednesday, temperatures will begin to drop as the weather system approaches.
Temperatures will rise above freezing by Wednesday afternoon, ending the threat of additional ice accretion. However, if temperatures return to below freezing on Wednesday night, freezing is likely again through the night and into early Thursday morning, with multiple cases of black ice likely on Thursday morning’s commute across much of western and northern Texas. there is.

Ice threat for the next 3 days.
Overall, the forecast is for it to begin along Interstate 20 in West Texas, extend east toward Interstate 35, and eventually reach parts of southeastern Oklahoma and southern Arkansas. Up to 1/4 to 0.5 inches or more of ice is expected to accumulate. It is also becoming more likely that secondary ice areas exceeding a quarter inch will emerge in other parts of Arkansas and western Tennessee.
In general, ice accretion less than 1/4 inch is considered troublesome, but when the amount approaches 0.5 inch or more, the effects start to be devastating.

Explainer of ice effects.
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At about 0.5 inch, power outages can be numerous and driving is considered unsafe.
Dangerous travel can occur, especially during commuting hours, including power outages. This is likely to be a memorable ice storm for some, and if cold air sinks further south or precipitation decreases than computer forecast models suggest, 0.5 in some places. Ice over inches can reach devastating limits. Amount more than expected.
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A power outage is possible until Wednesday morning.
With potentially destructive weather, some states are bracing for a week of disruption.
ERCOT, Texas’s power grid administrator, said it was monitoring the threat of freezing rain in Lone Star state, but had enough power to meet the demand of its more than 26 million customers. I think.
Computer forecast models show that the threat of precipitation will decrease by the first weekend in February.