Russia’s recent missile and drone strikes against Ukraine have highlighted the development of three wars.
First, Iran appears to be playing a key role in the arming of Russia.
Then there are strong indications that Russia’s stockpile of missiles is getting very low.
And finally, this new level of intensity means Ukraine will need help from the West to stop this new influx of missiles.
In recent weeks, despite Iranian and Russian denials, images of the Shahed-136 drone, with its distinctive delta wing silhouetted against the sky, have circulated in the world’s media.
In Kyiv, residents of skyscrapers watched in horror as drones flew under their windows.
Russia has singled out Ukraine’s energy infrastructure for destruction, and the region is entering winter inexorably.
Russia hopes the plummeting temperatures will hold back and stifle Ukraine’s population.
The nationwide rolling blackouts underscore the effectiveness of this new influx of Iranian-made drones in slowly disrupting the country’s national grid.
A type of loitering munition, the Shahed-136 is a guided flight bomb used by Russia as a cheap cruise missile, designed to be destroyed on impact rather than return.
Launched in packs, these drones are designed to avoid radar and fly low.
Its low altitude and slow speed allow it to be shot down by individual soldiers, as many do, but it can also be used against frontline positions, making it more maneuverable than faster missiles. I have.
And they’re relatively cheap, at $20,000 each, compared to the hundreds of thousands of more advanced weapons of the same kind that allow the Russian military to fire salvos at Ukrainian cities and military positions.
An accurate machine with a 40kg warhead, the Shahed-136 does a lot of damage.
Russia was able to modify and rebrand Iranian drones as “Geran-2” to be guided by satellite positioning systems such as GLONASS, Russian GPS.
Moscow claims these renamed, refurbished and repainted drones are Russian and not Iranian – an overwhelming majority of those produced are Iranian. A thin layer of denial swept away by evidence.
Meanwhile, this high-tempo conflict with Ukraine has only lasted a few months, and Russia has depleted most of its missile stocks.
With the economy still in a state of peace, there is no immediate way to replenish rapidly depleting inventories. Russian missiles are advanced, but expensive and time-consuming to manufacture.
With most of the world turning its back on the aggressor or fearing sanctions for its dealings with Russia, there are few partners to turn to.
Enter Iran.
Iran’s new weapon
One of the ironies of the sanctions against Iran is that it now has a powerful military-industrial complex, with a particular focus on drones and short- to medium-range missiles.
Tehran has steadily improved its domestic design, gradually increasing the range, accuracy and survivability of its long-range drones, roaming ammunition, and developing large and We have a growing missile arsenal.
Both are road mobile and use solid fuel, so they can emerge from a hidden position, fire within minutes, and then hide.
This increases your chances of surviving any potential conflict.
Ranges of 300-500 km for Fateh-e-mobin (improved) and 700 km for Zolfaghar are useful for theater-level combat, but accuracy drops to a few meters and is constantly improving. , can hit. Specific points his targets such as bridges, command posts and missile batteries.
Russian technology has helped improve the accuracy of imported Iranian drones, and Russian support will likely do the same for these deadly weapons.
What is behind Iran’s alleged move?
The United Nations Security Council has questioned whether Iran has violated its treaty obligations by actively supporting Russia, a pariah on the world stage.
Still, Iran has something to gain.
There are many different models and types of drones and missiles built there, but the real test for any weapon system is brutal combat with no second place prize.
While some models have been tested by Iranian proxy forces in the past, a wealth of valuable information will be gleaned if Iranian weapons systems were to face Western weapon-supplied industrial-scale powers. Confront potential future conflicts.
This feedback to Iranian analysts and weapons designers will help improve future missiles and drones and make them more deadly.
Another reason for reported Iranian involvement is that Russia may agree to sell 24 highly advanced Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jets to the Iranian Air Force. The Iranian Air Force has a number of obsolete fighters for which older versions of the MiG-29 are best suited.
Russian know-how, technology transfer, and engineering skills will at least increase Iran’s ability to deploy aircraft that have the potential to survive future conflicts.
It is also possible to back-engineer some of these advanced Russian jets incorporating some of the design features of the Su-35. For example, advanced radar capable of tracking 24 targets simultaneously, Vector Thrust to significantly improve agility and his range of over 3,500 km. (2,175 miles).
Russia therefore has little choice but to import relatively cheap and effective Iranian missiles.
But unlike NATO members such as Turkey and the United States, who quickly saw its potential, Moscow has never really invested in the technology, so its drone program is also trying to catch up.
Ukrainian air defense shield
How was Ukraine affected?
Officials in Kyiv must be increasingly concerned that Russia will use these cheap imports to overwhelm Ukraine’s air defenses.
Recent efforts to shoot down a swarm of drones have significantly depleted Ukrainian inventories, leaving HIMARS batteries and replacements in dire need to protect cities from attack.
At the start of the war, Ukraine possessed the S-300 and Buk air defense systems, capable of long-range defense against fast-moving targets and capable of dealing with slow but low-flying cruise missiles.
The protracted and bitter conflict means that Ukraine, too, is short on advanced weapons and cannot purchase near the amount of replacement missiles needed to sustain the campaign.
Recent Russian airstrikes have highlighted how much Ukraine needs Western air defense systems.
This comes at a time when Western aid is starting to level off and NATO forces are looking to their now depleted stockpiles.
Again, building a complex weapon system takes time.
For it to be effective, the air defense must be multi-layered.
Countering incoming ballistic missiles requires high-velocity long-range weapons with minimum speeds of 2,000 to 3,000 km/h (1,240 mph to 1,865 mph), and many models fly much faster, offering true polar speed. The supersonic range is Mach 5 and above. .
For reference, Mach 5 is about 6,115 km/h (3,800 mph), five times the sound of speed.
These systems require advanced radars that can track multiple fast-moving objects, identify them, and predict their paths. This allows air defense missiles to be launched at the right place at the right time to intercept and destroy them.
These advanced weapons have started arriving:
NASAMS
The first NASAMS, or National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System, arrived in Ukraine in September.
A joint Norwegian-US effort, NASAMS has distributed radars capable of locating and tracking a variety of targets over a very wide range, well suited to protecting the vast Ukrainian landscape.
NASAMS can also incorporate very different air defense systems into their architecture. That means Ukraine can add weapon systems and integrate them into her one effective air defense umbrella.
Iris-T
Germany has rushed four short- to medium-range IRIS-T air defense missile systems to Ukraine.
They arrived in early October, partly to help Ukraine, but also to counter rising domestic and international impatience over Berlin’s perceived indifference to conflict. .
The IRIS-T is so new that it has never been tested in combat. The German army does not use this weapon.
But there is one pro-Western country that already possesses an effective, multi-layered and advanced air defense system.
But things are complicated…
Israeli reticence and Cold War with Iran
Ukraine, which has strong cultural ties to Israel, was recently surprised by its refusal to purchase short-range Iron Domes and medium-range Barak-8 air defense weapons.
Israel is pushing to export both weapons to several countries interested in buying them, but such a move could provoke a military reaction from Russia, so it has decided not to sell to Ukraine. I am refusing.
Russia controls most of Syria’s airspace, and Israeli jets regularly strike targets in and around Damascus and parts of southern Syria.
An Iranian military convoy allegedly carrying missiles and drones has been repeatedly attacked by Israeli fighter jets.
In late October, a rare daytime airstrike by an Israeli aircraft destroyed a suspected Iranian drone manufacturing factory near the capital Damascus.
Israel says an Iranian military invasion of Syria poses a dangerous and persistent threat.
And any intervention on the Ukrainian side could threaten the sober peace between the two countries closer to home – Israel would rather not risk chaos.
troubles in winter
The arrival of Iranian weapons has taken the world by surprise, and the aftermath of the attack, which has largely focused on Ukraine’s civilian population and energy infrastructure, has helped President Volodymyr Zelensky’s plea for advanced weapons, especially as winter approaches. .
Cold, damp, swampy, muddy and even snowy weather does not stop the fighting, but because of the stored and preserved energy, the suffering of the Ukrainian people who are now enduring periodic blackouts. sure to strengthen.
After Russia’s recent crushing defeats in the northeast and south, there is renewed optimism on the streets of Ukraine’s major cities.
Ukrainians may be confident of eventual victory, but their initial optimism is tempered by the realization that the war is likely to last longer than people realized.
Ukraine’s survival depends on the continued goodwill of the NATO nations and a huge arms funnel that infuses Kyiv’s armed forces with advanced weapons.
