The NFL certainly has a great weekend of football in store. This weekend’s conference championship game arguably features the best four teams all season, based on each team’s 12-plus win streak.
It was the sixth time in NFL history, the first since the 2015 season, and the third time since 1998 that all four teams in the conference championship have won 12 or more games in the regular season. He will be under 28 when the conference championship game starts.
Two teams (San Francisco 49ers and Cincinnati Bengals) have 10 or more win streaks, and two other teams (Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs) have 14 or more wins. Matchups can go either way, and any of the four potential Super Bowl matchups will feature worthy opponents.
So who will represent the AFC and NFC in the Super Bowl? Both title games are evenly matched, but there are some mismatches that could give certain teams an edge on Sunday. . The six biggest discrepancies on Championship Sunday start at the bottom and continue all the way to first place.
6. Chiefs v Bengals in the 4th Quarter
advantage: bengals
The Chiefs have lost the Bengals by a total of 9 points in their last three games. Kansas City lost each game he lost by three points to take a fourth quarter lead in each.
The Chiefs are going 26-6 in the fourth quarter and three games of overtime. Joe Burrow said in those games he completed his 80% of his passes for 257 yards and for two touchdowns he had one interception (passer his rating of 110.7). Patrick Mahomes, on the other hand, completed 111 yards in his 71.4% of passes and had no touchdowns to one interception (63.8 rating).
If the Chiefs have a 4th quarter lead in this matchup, they’re now battling their own demons to see if they’ll keep the lead.
advantage: tracking
Chase has the Chiefs’ number in three meetings they’ve faced off. He has 417 receiving yards in three games against Kansas City. This is the most of any player in his three games with the Chiefs since Lance Alworth from 1965 to 1966.
With Joe Burrow targeting Chase against the Chiefs, the Bengals quarterback went 417 for 24 of 29 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions for a 144.0 passer rating (14.4 yards on one attempt). am. Later in those games, Chase scored 2 touchdowns for 244 yards on his 14 catches (17.4 yards per catch for him).
The Chiefs’ secondary struggled to defend Chase in three meetings. It’s a good bet for Burrow to target his No. 1 receiver for him.
advantage: 49ers pressure
Hearts’ pass numbers haven’t been the best for the pressure this season. It’s probably the only weakness in his game. He completed 44.4% of his passes for his 597 yards, and with four touchdowns and two interceptions he achieved his passer rating of 66.8. Hurts ranks him 25th among eligible quarterbacks in completion percentage and yards per attempt (5.4). He was 16th in the passer rating for that category.
The 49ers are 12th in the NFL in pressure percentage (34.4%) and have the 5th highest pass rushing percentage in the league (according to Pro Football Focus). The defense will always put pressure on Hart and try to exploit its weaknesses.
3. Jalen Hurts vs. 49ers deep throw pass defense
advantage: pain
The Eagles’ pass offense is a great opportunity to bring in huge numbers if their offensive line can protect Hurts, the best deep-ball quarterback in the league. Hearts has 25 or more air yards this season (including the playoffs). 125.0) he is throwing for 798 yards. He leads the NFL in his passes with touchdowns and his rating for throw passers that travel over 25 yards.
That’s a problem for the 49ers’ defense, which struggles to cover deep balls, and ranks no higher than 25 in passer ratings for completion percentage, touchdown-to-interception ratio, and throws over 25 yards downfield. It has been. The 49ers allow opposing quarterbacks to complete his 41% of passes for his 687 yards and move his yards over 25 airs, from five touchdowns to his two interceptions. On throws he achieves his passer rating of 106.6.
If Hearts have time, AJ Brown and Devonta Smith could make the 49ers pay.
2. Patrick Mahomes vs. Bengals ‘D’ With 3 or less rushes
advantage: Bengals defense
Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anuramo may have a blueprint for beating Mahomes. When Mahomes faces his rushing three fewer defenders passing (Anuramo has him down eight in coverage), Mahomes completes 52% of his passes and averages 5.2 yards per attempt. , passer his rating he is 66.7.
As the Bengals stormed four more defenders, Mahomes completed 72% of his passes, averaging 8.3 yards per attempt and a passer rating of 112.0. Mahomes said this season he has a passer rating of 112.9 when he’s covered by eight defenders, and a touchdown when he’s under pressure this season. He was second (13).
This may be a double-edged sword for Cincinnati this week, but Anuramo has proven in matchups so far that he can have some success against Mahomes in Rush 3.
1. Brock Purdy vs. Eagles pass rush
advantage: eagles pass rush
Purdy has not faced a more dominant pass rush this season than the Eagles, who were the only team in the NFL to finish second in pressure percentage (38.4%) with over 10% sack percentage (11.7%). . His 70 regular-season sacks were his third-most in a single season in NFL history (75 regular-season and postseason sacks were his third-most). The Eagles are the first team in NFL history to have four different players record his 10 or more sacks in a single season (Harson Reddick, Josh Sweat, Javon Hargrave and Brandon Graham).
Purdy struggled under pressure in the divisional round win over the Cowboys, going 3 of 11 for 14 yards and a passer rating of 39.6 (2.2 yards per attempt). This marked Purdy’s first of his six innings facing pressure, as he completed 54% of his passes, averaging 8.3 yards per attempt, and his passer rating was his 121.2. It’s a tough deal to start with.
Purdy never faced a top 5 defense by pressure rate in any of those starts, and only one defense in the top 10 by pressure rate (that team missed the playoffs). The Eagles can prove they can reach quarterbacks and have the manpower to play in the secondary to back up their dominant pass rush.
When Purdy faced a top-five defense in pressure percentage last week, it didn’t work. Will he improve when faced with a similar situation against his 5.1 sacks per game average over the past nine games?
